Monday, March 16, 2015

Bracket Breakdown: The West

Wisconsin danced all the way to Dallas last year, and with their entire squad (minus the loss of point guard Ben Brust to graduation) returning, many believe the Badgers have what it takes not just to suit up in Lucas Oil Stadium, but to celebrate under a shower of red and white confetti when the final buzzer sounds on this basketball season. Bo Ryan's team was dealt a tough hand in their region though, with possibly the toughest road to the Final Four of any of the number one seeds. The region has it all: traditional powerhouses (Arizona, North Carolina), Cinderella wanna-be's (Harvard), and giants that were once giant killers (VCU). Can Wisconsin survive a region so deep with potential? Zach and I break down their chances.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: As stated earlier, there's absolutely nothing that this region can't offer. Beginning with the enticing match-ups of VCU/Ohio State and Arkansas/Wofford, the potential for upsets runs wild. But any road that leads to Indy must go through Wisconsin. The Badgers, much like Kentucky, are nearly impossible to keep out of one's Final Four. The traditional shot clock-eating, defense-killing, stat sheet-stuffing offense that was has now turned into an in-your-face, deliberate attack that is led by Wooden Award candidate Frank Kaminsky and role-player-turned-star Sam Dekker. Barring a historical defeat to Coastal Carolina, Wisconsin is set for an appearance in the round of 32. Who will be joining them?

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Smart looks to lead the 7th-seeded Rams
Much like Butler in the Midwest, the Rams of VCU took the tournament by storm in 2011 and became a fan favorite. Their fast paced "havoc" playing style has won the hearts of many and under the leadership of Shaka Smart they have now become a force to be reckoned with. They have shed the Cinderella label and are now a team with a target on their back. Unfortunately for VCU, their quest for a deep run will be challenged by the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, ending the regular season eleventh overall in field goal percentage (.486). That percentage translates to Ohio State putting up just under 76 points per game. High-powered offense is no issue for VCU, however, as the Rams average 10 steals a game which contributes to their ability to force 16 turnovers per game. Briante Weber is injured for the Rams, but they play a style that no Big Ten team has ever thought of playing. Thad Matta's game plan will need to be fresh and new if he hopes to take his tenth-seeded Buckeyes into the next round.

Zach's Take: The first thing that jumps out to me in the West Region is that the committee did us all a huge favor by putting Wisconsin and Arizona in the same region. Who could forget Wisconsin's thrilling Elite 8 victory last year over the Wildcats? It appears the two are on a crash course to do it again and that's going to be an unbelievable matchup. Both teams return almost their entire rosters from last season and it's a coin flip as to who moves on to Indy.

Like Nate said, the Ohio State-VCU matchup is especially enticing and, while I think the Rams will come out on top, it's a shame this Shaka Smart team doesn't have a healthy Briante Weber. If they did, you could be talking about another run deep into the tourney for VCU.

Another team I'm intrigued by is Georgia State. Coached by Ron Hunter, Georgia State features the coach's kid R.J. Hunter, a pure shooter from Pike High School in Indianapolis. In addition, Kevin Ware and Ryan Harrow give the Panthers two guys who have played at elite programs and know what March is like. GSU shoots the ball extremely well (48 percent) and has won nine of their last 10.

The other team that is a mystery is North Carolina. Which team will show up? They have been painfully inconsistent throughout the season, but looked great in the ACC Tournament, minus the championship against Notre Dame. If the good UNC team shows up then they have Final Four  potential, but if the bad UNC shows up.....keep reading...

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: VCU and Ohio State provide one of the more intriguing match-ups in an otherwise stacked region but the game that many may overlook is the North Carolina Tar Heels first round contest against the Harvard Crimson. Everyone knows that March is not always about who's better on paper, it's about who's hot at the right time and who has the momentum. North Carolina blew a double-digit lead in their conference championship and came out as the losers against Notre Dame. Harvard on the other hand is riding into the Dance with the memory of win over arch-rival Yale fresh in mind. Toss that in with the inconsistency that Roy Williams' team seems to suffer from and you have a 13 over a 4 upset waiting to happen. Tommy Amaker is no stranger to March, and there's no doubt he will have Harvard ready to fight till that final buzzer sounds.

Zach's Take: Nate stole my pick so I'll go with the game right above it on the bracket. Wofford and Arkansas is another 5/12 matchup where the 12 could be moving on. Wofford is a quality team that defeated North Carolina State in Raleigh earlier this season. The Terriers have only lost two games since the calendar flipped to 2015 and they rank 27th in the nation in defense, holding opponents just under 60 points per game. Stopping Arkansas' duo of Bobby Portis (SEC Player of the Year) and Michael Qualls is not going to be easy, but we're talking about an Arkansas program that has been to the tournament five times since the millenium and has lost in the first round four of those years. Again, if you're looking for a 5/12 upset, this could be the one to choose.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: You may not know about him, but if his team performs up to their potential, you surely will. Be on the lookout for Oregon guard Joe Young, the Pac 12 Player of the Year. He leads the Ducks with 20 points, 4 boards, and 3 assists per game and, should the Ducks emerge victorious against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, is sure to give the Wisconsin back court fits. Not only is Young a threat to score from the floor, but when the game is on the line, Oregon can get the ball into the hands of one of the best free throw shooters in the nation. With his free throw percentage of 92%, any close game will surely be in his hands. And the best thing about this hard-nosed point guard? He's just waiting for that opportunity.
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Hunter will be a threat against Baylor in the first round

Zach's Take: I mentioned him before and I'll say it again: keep an eye on R.J. Hunter. The 6-6 junior averages just below 20 points per game along with 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He's the kind of guy who can heat up in a hurry and his length makes him a difficult matchup (think a smaller version of Kevin Durant). As an added bonus, the kid is feeling it of late. On March 7th he dropped 35 on Georgia Southern then followed that up with a 32-point performance against Louisiana-Lafayette. Georgia State is a talented team and Hunter is the kind of player at a mid-major who could lead his team on a Cinderella run.

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