Friday, October 23, 2015

Mets Prove Why Teams Must Possess "Win Now" Mentality

Before discussing the New York Mets and their incredible run through the 2015 postseason, take a moment and flashback with me...

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It's September 8, 2012 and the Washington Nationals are sitting comfortably in first place of the National League East. A potential World Series favorite, the Nats have young arms in the rotation and a potent lineup that features rookie centerfielder Bryce Harper. In the rotation, the headliner is Stephen Strasburg, a hard-throwing lefty you may have heard of who owns 15 wins on the season. 

Strasburg is pitching in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery and the Washington management has placed an innings limit of roughly 160 innings on him. After relenting five runs in three innings the night before, which brought him to 159 1/3 innings for the season, the Nats decided to shut down Strasburg for the season with 24 games remaining. 

Washington was home to postseason baseball for the first time since 1933 as the Nationals held off the Braves to win the NL East. Without Strasburg, the Nats headed to the National League Division Series to face the reigning World Series champions: the St. Louis Cardinals. With the series tied at two, the series finale was held in Washington. The Nationals had the series in the bag heading into the top of the ninth, leading 7-5. However, St. Louis plated four runs and went on to win the game, sending the Nationals home earlier than expected.

Was Strasburg's season-ending shutdown to blame for the Nationals' failure? Perhaps. Washington entered the postseason without one of its top pitchers and pitching wins in the postseason.



***

We're back in 2015 now and the New York Mets recently dominated the sports talk shows with the possibility that Matt Harvey could be shut down for the rest of the season before the playoffs started. Harvey is currently 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA this season and has gone 2-0 with 16 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings this postseason.

The Mets are making their first trip to the World Series since 2000 and are hoping to win it all for the first time since 1986. Harvey, like Strasburg, is pitching in his first season since Tommy John surgery and also like Strasburg, is young and considered a key piece to the future success of his club.

But despite agent Scott Boras' loudest complaints and threats, New York decided to ignore the innings limit that was set on Harvey at the beginning of the season and use him in the playoffs. Harvey was told he shouldn't pitch over 180 innings this season, but he currently sits at 202 with the World Series looming. It's unclear whether or not he will pitch in the World Series yet (he was scheduled to start Game 5 of the NLCS), but the Mets made the right decision in pitching him this postseason.

Let's forget this innings limit argument for a second and really consider what that means. Matt Harvey was supposed to only pitch 180 innings. Let's say one inning he goes out and throws a three-pitch inning and the next frame it takes him 33 pitches to record three outs. Clearly, an inning is not a true judge of the labor put on Harvey's arm. If doctors and teams want to use a figure to judge usage then may I suggest using pitches thrown.

The reality is this: teams and athletes play sports to win. Sure, the Mets or Nationals would not want to lose a young pitcher for the rest of his career by pitching him too much, but what is pitching too much? It seems that nobody has truly figured that out yet.

The Mets needed Matt Harvey to get to the point they're at now and they will need him to beat either the Royals or Blue Jays in the World Series. The opportunity to win a World Series may not come again for a long time so why waste it? People thought the Nationals would be in the World Series year after year, but they have not won a postseason series with Strasburg on the roster. The opportunity has never presented itself again. Maybe it would have in 2012 if Strasburg had been allowed to pitch in the postseason.

Maybe the opportunity would not have been here for the Mets in 2015 if Harvey was watching every game from the dugout. In sports, the chance to win a championship does not present itself often. The Mets knew they were a quality team, but they didn't know that Daniel Murphy was going to hit a home run in seven-straight games. They didn't know that they would be able to beat Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. They didn't know the pitching staff could quiet a young Cubs offense that was on fire coming into the NLCS. 

All they knew going into the postseason was that they needed their best lineup to win the World Series.

And pitching Matt Harvey gives them the best chance to do just that.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Cubs' Postseason Run Providing Plenty of Emotion

You've heard about it. You've read about it. You've been a part of it. The Cubs are in the National League Championship Series, and that is not a typo. For the first time in seven years, the north side of Chicago has life in the month of October, and it would behoove the rest of the country to pay attention to it.

Since 2000, the Cubs have enjoyed a couple postseason appearances, three to be exact. Those years were fun, they had excitement. Even the trip to the NLCS in 2003, the first Cubs season that I can vividly remember, was something that gave the North Side hope. That was supposed to be The Year and yet, it wasn't. You know the story. You know how that season came to a screeching halt. And then 2007 and 2008 came and went without a single postseason victory. Those teams were good, but there was always a lingering doubt, almost as if Cub fans were waiting for a reason to believe something bad was going to happen. And sure enough, both seasons ended in 3-0 sweeps in the NLDS.
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Epstein has pieced together one of the best teams in Cub history

Yet here we are, with the New York Mets cementing themselves as the only thing that stands between the Cubs and that elusive World Series appearance that the Cubs, their fans, and the city of Chicago crave so badly. But this year is different for reasons other than just this season alone. This season has been a long time coming, and the Cubs are now reaping the benefits of one of the biggest rebuilds in sports history.

It began with Theo Epstein, the mastermind who put together the 2004 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. In 2011, he took over as President for the Cubs and announced a five-year plan to completely tear down and rebuild the Cubs roster. It was painful to accept and even more painful to watch. The first year of the five-year plan ended with the Cubs finishing with a 61-101 record which, obviously, gave Cubs fans very little reason to feel optimistic. Yet each year showed improvement. In 2013 they went from being 40 games under .500 in 2012 to being 30 games under. Then in 2014 they finished 16 games under. And now here they are, in 2015, with a regular season record of 97-65: the best record left in the postseason.

This wasn't a part of the plan. After all, it's only year four of Epstein's time with the Cubs. Were they supposed to compete? Yes. Were they supposed to make the playoffs? Not likely. Were they supposed to up-end the top two teams in the league on their way to the NLCS? Never in a million years. It's not even so much that they did it, but HOW they did it. Joe Maddon, though one of the best in the business, is in his first year and until August 8th when Anthony Rizzo turned 26, their entire infield plus two thirds of their outfield was 25 or younger. These are kids we're talking about. These are rookies that haven't even been in the league for a full calendar year. And that's what makes it so great.

Being a Cub fan is not something you just do, it's something you invest in. There may not be another team in all of American sports with a fan base that has more pitiful optimism or dedication to their team than the Chicago Cubs. After all, how many teams can say that their fan base's motto is "Wait till next year"? A phrase that has been uttered millions of times in hopes of defending letdown season after letdown season? The fans are committed, even when the Cubs are bad. This is not to get into a debate about the best fans in baseball, this is about realizing how much this postseason run means to the organization, the fans, and the city of Chicago.

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The Cubs are 4 wins away from another celebration
When you walk into Wrigley Field, as I had the extreme pleasure of doing three times this past summer, you feel the electricity. I've been in 17 different MLB ballparks, none of which have a buzz like Wrigley Field, especially this year. There is nothing like walking up the steps from the main concourse and looking out onto the field and seeing the green ivy, or the scoreboard in center, or the rooftops that line the opposite sides of Waveland and Sheffield Avenue. The park is beautiful, and every day it's filled with a sea of blue that hopes it gets to see a win that will move their team one step closer to the month of October.

It's October now, and what an October it has been. First the Pittsburgh Pirates, then the bitter rival St. Louis Cardinals. Neither team could match the Cubs offense and now the Cubs have given the baseball world every reason in the world to hope, to believe. It has no longer become a season where fans wait to see something bad happen for the Cubs. This team provides an excitement and energy that the previous three playoff teams did not. They're young, but they're good, and everybody knows it. There is no longer doubt and there is no longer any reason to wonder. The Cubs are legitimate World Series contenders.

So now the date is set: Saturday October 17th. The New York Mets vs. the Chicago Cubs. Matt Harvey vs. Chicago's $155 million-dollar man, Jon Lester. 1986 World Champions vs. 1908 World Champions. Two teams that tore through the second half of the season and now sit on the doorstep of potential history. If you're a Cubs fan, confidence is not hard to find. After all, the Cubs did go 7-0 against the Mets in the regular season and outscored them 27-11. But this is a different Mets team, one that has added Yoenis Cespedes and has brought back their captain David Wright. Winning won't be easy, but for once, the Cubs are favored. The Cubs are now the top dog. It is their series to lose. They know it, the fans know it, and Chicago knows it. And with each win, the city of Chicago comes one win closer to being thrown into absolute chaos. The baseball world will be flipped upside down and the party may never stop. And for the first time in a long time, the Cubs have given everyone reason to believe that the party is not an unrealistic thing to believe in. There is no next year. Next year is here.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Health is Offseason Key for St. Louis in Loaded Division

Adam Wainwright
The trend continued of the best team in baseball not winning a playoff series as the St. Louis Cardinals fell to the Chicago Cubs Tuesday at Wrigley Field. For the third-straight season, the best regular-season team did not win a playoff series. For the Cardinals, they met their match in a young and talented Cubs team, but as the offseason begins, health has to be the primary concern in St. Louis.

The Cardinals won their third-straight National League Central Division title this season, but bowed out in the NLDS to Chicago in four games. Much has been made of the Central Division's success as the top three teams in the MLB came from the division. Moving forward, Pittsburgh, Chicago and St. Louis are here to stay, but if the Cardinals are to continue their reign then getting everyone healthy has to be the primary focus for the offseason.

The Cardinals rarely put their full lineup on the field in 2015, yet managed to win 100 games. St. Louis routinely had multiple starters on the injury list. Here are some to note:

  • Matt Holliday: missed 89 games
  • Matt Adams: missed 102 games
  • Randal Grichuk: missed 59 games
  • Adam Wainwright: made four starts
In addition, Yadier Molina missed the final game of the NLDS due to injury and went through surgery on his thumb today while Carlos Martinez missed the postseason due to injury as well. 

St. Louis received stellar play from Stephen Piscotty in the NLDS and Jason Heyward hit .293 for the season. Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong are both reliable as is Jhonny Peralta. But the reality is this: the Cubs and Pirates are good. Very good. In 2016, the Cardinals will finish third in the division if they are unable to stay healthy.

There is no need for panic in St. Louis after the NLDS lost to the Cubs. Sure, it stings, but these Cubs aren't your father's Cubs...or your grandfather's Cubs. These Cubs are for real and so is Pittsburgh. But the Cardinals will be fine if they can get healthy and continue to develop their young arms.

Stabilizing the rotation is a must. St. Louis needs Michael Wacha and Martinez to continue to improve and, perhaps, Marco Gonzales will need to be prepared to fit into the rotation. There is a real possibility that John Lackey retires or leaves in free agency, which leaves a hole in the rotation.

In addition, Heyward may be on the way out as well. He's consistent and he's young, which means he will command well over $100 million in free agency this offseason. The Cardinals must decide if they will try and keep him. Since 2012, he ranks third in WAR among outfielders, which puts him behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. 

St. Louis is an elite team, but in a strengthened division, the heat is on this offseason to keep pace with Pittsburgh and Chicago. The roster must get healthy and moves must be made in the offseason. If not, the Cardinals may find themselves looking up in the standings to two rivals.