Thursday, October 15, 2015

Health is Offseason Key for St. Louis in Loaded Division

Adam Wainwright
The trend continued of the best team in baseball not winning a playoff series as the St. Louis Cardinals fell to the Chicago Cubs Tuesday at Wrigley Field. For the third-straight season, the best regular-season team did not win a playoff series. For the Cardinals, they met their match in a young and talented Cubs team, but as the offseason begins, health has to be the primary concern in St. Louis.

The Cardinals won their third-straight National League Central Division title this season, but bowed out in the NLDS to Chicago in four games. Much has been made of the Central Division's success as the top three teams in the MLB came from the division. Moving forward, Pittsburgh, Chicago and St. Louis are here to stay, but if the Cardinals are to continue their reign then getting everyone healthy has to be the primary focus for the offseason.

The Cardinals rarely put their full lineup on the field in 2015, yet managed to win 100 games. St. Louis routinely had multiple starters on the injury list. Here are some to note:

  • Matt Holliday: missed 89 games
  • Matt Adams: missed 102 games
  • Randal Grichuk: missed 59 games
  • Adam Wainwright: made four starts
In addition, Yadier Molina missed the final game of the NLDS due to injury and went through surgery on his thumb today while Carlos Martinez missed the postseason due to injury as well. 

St. Louis received stellar play from Stephen Piscotty in the NLDS and Jason Heyward hit .293 for the season. Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong are both reliable as is Jhonny Peralta. But the reality is this: the Cubs and Pirates are good. Very good. In 2016, the Cardinals will finish third in the division if they are unable to stay healthy.

There is no need for panic in St. Louis after the NLDS lost to the Cubs. Sure, it stings, but these Cubs aren't your father's Cubs...or your grandfather's Cubs. These Cubs are for real and so is Pittsburgh. But the Cardinals will be fine if they can get healthy and continue to develop their young arms.

Stabilizing the rotation is a must. St. Louis needs Michael Wacha and Martinez to continue to improve and, perhaps, Marco Gonzales will need to be prepared to fit into the rotation. There is a real possibility that John Lackey retires or leaves in free agency, which leaves a hole in the rotation.

In addition, Heyward may be on the way out as well. He's consistent and he's young, which means he will command well over $100 million in free agency this offseason. The Cardinals must decide if they will try and keep him. Since 2012, he ranks third in WAR among outfielders, which puts him behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. 

St. Louis is an elite team, but in a strengthened division, the heat is on this offseason to keep pace with Pittsburgh and Chicago. The roster must get healthy and moves must be made in the offseason. If not, the Cardinals may find themselves looking up in the standings to two rivals.

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