Bracket Breakdown: The South

The South region is ruled by big men, which makes this particular quadrant of the bracket all the more exciting. The physicality and strength that the top teams in this region provide are sure to provide us with numerous memorable match-ups. Headlining this region is the top-seeded Blue Devils of Duke University and their star freshman center Jahlil Okafor. If Duke hopes to punch a ticket to Indy, Okafor and the rest of Duke's front line will have their hands full with players such as Joshua Smith (Georgetown), Winston Shepard  (San Diego State), and Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga). But don't be fooled, the back courts in this region aren't pushovers. Yet with such talented forwards and centers, which front court will lead their team into the month of April? Zach was too busy working the Illinois State-Green Bay NIT game. So I'll take this one solo.

General Overview: Duke is number one and Gonzaga is number two. One is looking for redemption after an embarrassing opening round exit to a 14 seed, and the other is looking to advance to their first Final Four in school history. While both teams are clearly talented enough to make it to Indy, a handful of lower seeded teams will make sure that the road to the Final Four is a tough one.

We've said it before, we'll say it again: March is not about who's better on paper, it's about who's on a hot streak at the right time. Two teams in particular are rolling at a time when momentum can sometimes mean more than talent. Iowa State and SMU, both conference tournament winners in their own right, have their sights set on Final Four appearances and are equipped to make those dreams come true. Iowa State has won eight of their last ten games (including five wins over ranked opponents) and have won five straight. Southern Methodist, on the other hand, have won seventeen of their last twenty and have won four straight. Fred Hoiberg and Larry Brown will have their teams ready to roll and, while they'll take it one game at a time, will surely be focused on catching flights to Indianapolis in three weeks.

Upset Alert: You remember them as the Cinderella of 2008. You remember them as the Stephen Curry-led Davidson Wildcats. Yet this year's Davidson squad is not to be disregarded as Curry's team was pre-March Madness. Winners of ten of their last eleven, Davidson has not just beaten their opponents, they've disposed of them. Their average margin of victory is just under fifteen points per game in those ten wins and with the seventh-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes in mind, the Wildcats look to build off of their recent success. What makes this team so special is that four players average double digits in the points category, with Taylor Kalinoski (17 ppg) and Jack Gibbs (16.3 ppg) leading the charge. Even more dangerous than their balanced attack is the depth that Bob McKillop's team has. Ten players average over ten minutes a game which means plenty of fresh legs for the Hawkeyes to keep track of.

Add all of this in with the facts that Davidson's ball movement results in 17 assists per game (good for 3rd in the nation) and their ability to shoot 47% per game enables them to put up 80 points per game (good for 6th in the nation), and you have a force to be reckoned with. Fran McCaffery's team will need to be up to the challenge or an opening round exit is sure to be in store for the Hawkeyes squad that did not finish in the top 50 in points, assists, rebounds, or field goal percentage per game (Davidson was top 35 in three of the four categories). Iowa will not be an easy victory, but if there were an upset in this region that I would pay close attention to, it would definitely be this seven/ten match-up.

Player to Watch: SMU was highlighted earlier in this post, and a big part of their potential for success in this tournament is because of the stellar play of their junior point guard Nic Moore. The Mustangs offense runs through him as he averages 14 points and 5 assists per game. Aside from the numbers he puts up, Moore's mere presence on the floor is also critical for Larry Brown's team. He's the only member of the team that averages more than 28 minutes per game and is on the court for 34 and a half minutes, on average. The question remains if Moore can bounce back from a sub par performance in the American Conference championship (11 points on 3-14 shooting, 1-7 from three point range), but if he returns to form in their opening match-up against the UCLA Bruins, SMU might ride the coattails of Nic Moore deep into the tournament.

Bracket Breakdown: The East

While the teams of the East region are obviously the main focus, the talent and makeup of each team may be overlooked when choosing a bracket. Why? Because this region has coaches that, despite possibly being a low seed, know what it takes to excel in March. Don't be fooled by the four next to Louisville's name, or the seven that's placed on the left side of Michigan State. Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo are sure to be prepared to advance past this weekend, and every team in the region better take notice.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: Headlined by the revival of Villanova and the continued ascent of Virginia, the top two seeds share a physical and defensive-minded attack that will be tough to counter for the other 14 teams in this region. Yet if we take a look at the lower seeds, there is still plenty of potential for neither Jay Wright's Wildcats or Tony Bennet's Cavaliers to be sitting at home the first weekend in April. Pay careful attention to the LSUs and Daytons of the region because those teams have hung with high-caliber teams and, in Dayton's case, we know they have a love for creating mayhem in March.

Perhaps the one thing that stands out the most in the first round of this region is the 5/12 match-up between Northern Iowa and Wyoming. I tread carefully with this statement, but I believe Northern Iowa has the best chance to advance out of the five seeds in the tournament. This is not to say that Wyoming is incapable of pulling off the upset, but to watch the Panthers flirt with a top 10 ranking, take down 3 Power Six schools (Northwestern, Iowa, and Virginia Tech), as well as split the season series against Wichita State is certainly convincing enough that this team can compete at a high level. Led by Seth Tuttle's 15 points and 7 rebounds a game, the Panthers are poised for a run that will be as successful as the run in 2010, but not nearly as much of a surprise. Their only downfall is that they struggle to rebound (averaging just over 30 a game). However, UNI shoots a very high percentage at 48% per game, good enough for 16th in the nation. Perhaps a sigh of relief for the Panthers is that Wyoming ranks even lower in rebounds per game which will make the battle on the boards even more pivotal in this game. It won't be a blow out, but I have a hard time believing that Wyoming will dance into the weekend.

Zach's Take: The East region is difficult to predict because, as alluded to above, there are lower-seeded teams who know how to win in March. While Virginia is extremely stingy on defense, the injury to Justin Anderson is a concern. In addition, Louisville has been a different team without Chris Jones and questions surround their ability to make a run. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans looked fantastic in the Big Ten Tournament and Jay Wright has had Villanova on a roll all season long. And let us not forget Northern Iowa and Oklahoma, two teams who have spent the majority of the season in the Top 25.

So who advances to Indianapolis? Virginia is my pick because of defense. Defense and pace of play is the name of the game in the East region. Northern Iowa will present major problems because of the way they slow the game down. If the Panthers advance to the Elite 8 don't be surprised, and if they meet Virginia there then the first one to 40 wins the game.

Will Villanova be the first one seed to lose? Some people believe LSU might be poised to knock off the 'Cats in the second round and there's reason to believe. The Tigers pound the glass hard and move the ball efficiently on offense.

The tallest player in the tournament, 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye, and the UC-Irvine Anteaters have plenty of size up front which has some people thinking that they could pull off a first round upset. Clearly there are question marks everywhere in the East, but bank on Virginia's defense to carry them through.

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: They were mentioned earlier and you certainly haven't forgotten them just yet: the Dayton Flyers. This year they have to earn their way into the field of 64 by beating Boise State for possession of the 11 seed in this region. Should the Flyers defeat the Broncos, I firmly believe that they will not only take down Providence, but they will also get the better of the Oklahoma Sooners in the round of 32. This is a team that knows what it's like to play on the big stage and they have their core still intact from last year's Elite 8 team. Archie Miller has this program headed in the right direction and another trip to the Sweet 16 looks like a very strong possibility.

Zach's Take: Contrary to Nate's pick, I have Providence as my upset alert. No, it's not an upset if Providence defeats Boise State/Dayton in the first round, but it will be if they defeat Oklahoma in the second round. I think they will and it's because of the Friars' backcourt tandem. LeDontae Henton and Kris Dunn combine to average 35 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists per game. Stopping OU's Buddy Hield is no easy task, but Providence was oh-so-close to upsetting North Carolina last season and this year Ed Cooley's squad will make some noise.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: A big determining factor in Oklahoma's success will be the play of big man Ryan Spangler. Spangler averages 10 points and 8 rebounds a game but is fresh off of a blown lay-up that would have sent the Sooners into the overtime against the eventual Big 12 champion Iowa State Cyclones. As physical and tough as Spangler is, it's hard to see him shying away from redeeming himself of the heart break that ended Oklahoma's conference season. He not only is a big part of what Oklahoma does, but he's also a veteran leader who epitomizes their team identity. If Spangler enters the tournament ready to dominate, the Sooners may make some noise in the East region.

Zach's Take: Malcolm Brogdon is the player to watch for Virginia. With Justin Anderson's hand injury, Brogdon shouldered much of the load during the NCAA Tournament and his second half effort against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament was admirable. If Anderson isn't his usual self, then Tony Bennett's squad will need Brogdon's best effort again. When Virginia plays, points are usually at a premium so expect Brogdon to lead the Cavs' offensive attack. The best player on one of the nation's best teams has to show up in March if they are to make the tournament. Expect Brogdon's best effort.

Bracket Breakdown: The West

Wisconsin danced all the way to Dallas last year, and with their entire squad (minus the loss of point guard Ben Brust to graduation) returning, many believe the Badgers have what it takes not just to suit up in Lucas Oil Stadium, but to celebrate under a shower of red and white confetti when the final buzzer sounds on this basketball season. Bo Ryan's team was dealt a tough hand in their region though, with possibly the toughest road to the Final Four of any of the number one seeds. The region has it all: traditional powerhouses (Arizona, North Carolina), Cinderella wanna-be's (Harvard), and giants that were once giant killers (VCU). Can Wisconsin survive a region so deep with potential? Zach and I break down their chances.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: As stated earlier, there's absolutely nothing that this region can't offer. Beginning with the enticing match-ups of VCU/Ohio State and Arkansas/Wofford, the potential for upsets runs wild. But any road that leads to Indy must go through Wisconsin. The Badgers, much like Kentucky, are nearly impossible to keep out of one's Final Four. The traditional shot clock-eating, defense-killing, stat sheet-stuffing offense that was has now turned into an in-your-face, deliberate attack that is led by Wooden Award candidate Frank Kaminsky and role-player-turned-star Sam Dekker. Barring a historical defeat to Coastal Carolina, Wisconsin is set for an appearance in the round of 32. Who will be joining them?

Smart looks to lead the 7th-seeded Rams

Much like Butler in the Midwest, the Rams of VCU took the tournament by storm in 2011 and became a fan favorite. Their fast paced "havoc" playing style has won the hearts of many and under the leadership of Shaka Smart they have now become a force to be reckoned with. They have shed the Cinderella label and are now a team with a target on their back. Unfortunately for VCU, their quest for a deep run will be challenged by the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, ending the regular season eleventh overall in field goal percentage (.486). That percentage translates to Ohio State putting up just under 76 points per game. High-powered offense is no issue for VCU, however, as the Rams average 10 steals a game which contributes to their ability to force 16 turnovers per game. Briante Weber is injured for the Rams, but they play a style that no Big Ten team has ever thought of playing. Thad Matta's game plan will need to be fresh and new if he hopes to take his tenth-seeded Buckeyes into the next round.

Zach's Take: The first thing that jumps out to me in the West Region is that the committee did us all a huge favor by putting Wisconsin and Arizona in the same region. Who could forget Wisconsin's thrilling Elite 8 victory last year over the Wildcats? It appears the two are on a crash course to do it again and that's going to be an unbelievable matchup. Both teams return almost their entire rosters from last season and it's a coin flip as to who moves on to Indy.

Like Nate said, the Ohio State-VCU matchup is especially enticing and, while I think the Rams will come out on top, it's a shame this Shaka Smart team doesn't have a healthy Briante Weber. If they did, you could be talking about another run deep into the tourney for VCU.

Another team I'm intrigued by is Georgia State. Coached by Ron Hunter, Georgia State features the coach's kid R.J. Hunter, a pure shooter from Pike High School in Indianapolis. In addition, Kevin Ware and Ryan Harrow give the Panthers two guys who have played at elite programs and know what March is like. GSU shoots the ball extremely well (48 percent) and has won nine of their last 10.

The other team that is a mystery is North Carolina. Which team will show up? They have been painfully inconsistent throughout the season, but looked great in the ACC Tournament, minus the championship against Notre Dame. If the good UNC team shows up then they have Final Four  potential, but if the bad UNC shows up.....keep reading...

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: VCU and Ohio State provide one of the more intriguing match-ups in an otherwise stacked region but the game that many may overlook is the North Carolina Tar Heels first round contest against the Harvard Crimson. Everyone knows that March is not always about who's better on paper, it's about who's hot at the right time and who has the momentum. North Carolina blew a double-digit lead in their conference championship and came out as the losers against Notre Dame. Harvard on the other hand is riding into the Dance with the memory of win over arch-rival Yale fresh in mind. Toss that in with the inconsistency that Roy Williams' team seems to suffer from and you have a 13 over a 4 upset waiting to happen. Tommy Amaker is no stranger to March, and there's no doubt he will have Harvard ready to fight till that final buzzer sounds.

Zach's Take: Nate stole my pick so I'll go with the game right above it on the bracket. Wofford and Arkansas is another 5/12 matchup where the 12 could be moving on. Wofford is a quality team that defeated North Carolina State in Raleigh earlier this season. The Terriers have only lost two games since the calendar flipped to 2015 and they rank 27th in the nation in defense, holding opponents just under 60 points per game. Stopping Arkansas' duo of Bobby Portis (SEC Player of the Year) and Michael Qualls is not going to be easy, but we're talking about an Arkansas program that has been to the tournament five times since the millenium and has lost in the first round four of those years. Again, if you're looking for a 5/12 upset, this could be the one to choose.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: You may not know about him, but if his team performs up to their potential, you surely will. Be on the lookout for Oregon guard Joe Young, the Pac 12 Player of the Year. He leads the Ducks with 20 points, 4 boards, and 3 assists per game and, should the Ducks emerge victorious against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, is sure to give the Wisconsin back court fits. Not only is Young a threat to score from the floor, but when the game is on the line, Oregon can get the ball into the hands of one of the best free throw shooters in the nation. With his free throw percentage of 92%, any close game will surely be in his hands. And the best thing about this hard-nosed point guard? He's just waiting for that opportunity.

Hunter will be a threat against Baylor in the first round

Zach's Take: I mentioned him before and I'll say it again: keep an eye on R.J. Hunter. The 6-6 junior averages just below 20 points per game along with 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He's the kind of guy who can heat up in a hurry and his length makes him a difficult matchup (think a smaller version of Kevin Durant). As an added bonus, the kid is feeling it of late. On March 7th he dropped 35 on Georgia Southern then followed that up with a 32-point performance against Louisiana-Lafayette. Georgia State is a talented team and Hunter is the kind of player at a mid-major who could lead his team on a Cinderella run.

Bracket Breakdown: The Midwest

Of the four regions, the Midwest may have the most intrigue due to the one seed it plays host to: the Wildcats of Kentucky. Sports fan or not, you surely know by now that John Calipari's team is only six games away from completing a perfect season. Many believe the Cats will pull it off and dance their way into history. Heck, even Vegas says that Kentucky's odds to win it all are even. Yet this region will not be a cake walk for Big Blue Nation. Kentucky has proven to be the best team in the land, but here's a look at the match-ups that make up the rest of the Midwest region.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: In an Indiana-heavy region, there is plenty of potential for two teams from the same state to meet up in the later rounds. Perhaps the two most intriguing games of the first round however, are the match-ups between West Virginia/Buffalo and Texas/Butler.

West Virginia finished fifth in a very deep Big 12 conference this season and are heading into the Dance with an overall record of 23-9. Led by Juwan Staten and Devin Williams, Bob Huggins' Mountaineers have the potential to end up in the Sweet 16, but their first game doesn't do them any favors. Bobby Hurley's Bulls are not to be overlooked, especially in the famed five/twelve game. And while statistics will always come into play when it comes to the total number of times a twelve has beat a five, Buffalo deserves credit in their own right. They only lost at Wisconsin by twelve, and were leading Kentucky by five at the half earlier this season. Bobby Hurley has a team that, going into this game, has nothing to lose and when the fact that Juwan Staten is not at full health is brought into consideration, it doesn't come as any surprise that Buffalo has more than a fighting chance to move into the round of 32.

Since 2010, the Butler Bulldogs have become America's sweethearts when it comes to March Madness. Once again, they find themselves in the tournament with aspirations of another miracle run. This year, they will be put up against a puzzling Texas team who barely, and maybe even questionably, made it into the field of 68 teams. The best news for the Longhorns is that Butler didn't finish the year ranked in the Top 25. Texas posted a horrendous record of 3-10 against ranked teams and fell off the map midway through the season. With that in mind, they still have the perfect balance of veteran leadership and young star power to lead them on what could be an unlikely run. Butler on the other hand finished 5-2 against ranked teams but has struggled to find consistency lately. The Bulldogs are 4-4 in their last eight games and will struggle to find an answer for Texas' front court. With Texas being a member of a Power Six conference, it's hard to call their potential victory an upset, but I believe the Rick Barnes and Co. will prove to be too strong for Butler to handle.

Do the Wildcats have more March Magic in them?

Zach's Take: Kentucky. That's all you really need to know. Obviously things have changed since November, but to put it in perspective how dominant the Cats have been, they beat the two-seed in the region, Kansas, 72-40 earlier in the season. They have beaten anybody and everybody and there's no reason not to pick them to win it all. With Cliff Alexander out for Kansas and Perry Ellis a bit banged up, it's hard to see the Jayhawks getting by Kentucky.

In fact, the Jayhawks may not get by the first weekend as a matchup with in-state rival could materialize in the third round. The Shockers have a dynamite backcourt and would be charged up for that game. I would say it's a safe bet Wichita State moves on to the Sweet 16.

The team that I believe can give UK the best game is third-seeded Notre Dame. The Irish are playing great ball at the moment and looked impressive in the ACC Tournament. They are talented at every position and have no problem scoring the basketball. The issue, as is it every game against Kentucky, is rebounding. Notre Dame ranks low in both offensive and defensive rebounding and that will be a major factor in the game.

There's plenty of other intriguing teams in the region, including an Indiana team that many did not think deserved to be in the tournament. However, the Hoosiers live by the three and die by the three. When they're living, they're living large. IU shot over 40 percent from deep as a team and hit 308 thres this season. If they get hot then they could knock off a few teams.

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: The two aforementioned games, in my opinion, will result in the lower seeds being victorious, but another game that may surprise some others is the Notre Dame/Northeastern match-up. The last six times Notre Dame has been in the tournament, they've only made it out of the first round twice. While Mike Brey's team certainly has more firepower this year than in year's past, the ACC tournament champions would be foolish to overlook the Huskies who have emerged victorious in seven of their last nine games.

Zach's Take: As Nate mentioned, Bobby Hurley's Buffalo team is one to watch. I believe they will knock off a West Virginia team that doesn't shoot a very high percentage and struggles to rebound the ball at times. It's that classic 5/12 matchup and the Bulls have won their last eight games. Meanwhile, West Virginia limps into the tournament losing three of it's last four contests. Smells like an upset to me.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: This region has plenty of individuals that are game-changers and can put up great numbers. Yet the one player that I firmly believe will have the biggest impact on this region is Kansas' Perry Ellis. Before the conference tournament, Ellis suffered a sprained knee and was not as mobile as we have seen him during the tournament. With freshman Cliff Alexander ruled out for the tournament, Ellis' health is an even bigger concern because Bill Self will need to deal with that lack of depth. More importantly, Ellis averages 14 points and 7 rebounds a game. If the Jayhawks want any shot at avenging the 32-point embarrassment they suffered against Kentucky at the beginning of the season, Ellis will have to be at the top of his game. If that knee holds up, Kansas may be able to punch a ticket to Indy. But if poor health plagues Kansas' veteran leader, the Jayhawks may have trouble escaping the round of 32.

Auguste leads a well-balanced Notre Dame squad into the Dance

Zach's Take: It's a guard's game now, but Nate and I have both chosen big men as the players to watch in the Midwest Region. Keep your eye on Notre Dame junior forward, Zach Auguste. Auguste averages 12.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on a team that features plenty of guards. In a region with Texas, Kansas and Kentucky, Auguste is going to have to be huge for the Irish. He will need to stay out of foul trouble and rebound the basketball if Notre Dame is to make any noise. If the Elite 8 matchup with Kentucky does happen, Auguste would have to battle with UK's big men and that's about the toughest task in college basketball. In the ACC championship against North Carolina, Auguste battled with the UNC bigs and finished with 16 points, 13 rebounds and only one foul. That's exactly what Notre Dame will need from him during its tournament run.