Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Bracket Breakdown: The East

While the teams of the East region are obviously the main focus, the talent and makeup of each team may be overlooked when choosing a bracket. Why? Because this region has coaches that, despite possibly being a low seed, know what it takes to excel in March. Don't be fooled by the four next to Louisville's name, or the seven that's placed on the left side of Michigan State. Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo are sure to be prepared to advance past this weekend, and every team in the region better take notice.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: Headlined by the revival of Villanova and the continued ascent of Virginia, the top two seeds share a physical and defensive-minded attack that will be tough to counter for the other 14 teams in this region. Yet if we take a look at the lower seeds, there is still plenty of potential for neither Jay Wright's Wildcats or Tony Bennet's Cavaliers to be sitting at home the first weekend in April. Pay careful attention to the LSUs and Daytons of the region because those teams have hung with high-caliber teams and, in Dayton's case, we know they have a love for creating mayhem in March.

Perhaps the one thing that stands out the most in the first round of this region is the 5/12 match-up between Northern Iowa and Wyoming. I tread carefully with this statement, but I believe Northern Iowa has the best chance to advance out of the five seeds in the tournament. This is not to say that Wyoming is incapable of pulling off the upset, but to watch the Panthers flirt with a top 10 ranking, take down 3 Power Six schools (Northwestern, Iowa, and Virginia Tech), as well as split the season series against Wichita State is certainly convincing enough that this team can compete at a high level. Led by Seth Tuttle's 15 points and 7 rebounds a game, the Panthers are poised for a run that will be as successful as the run in 2010, but not nearly as much of a surprise. Their only downfall is that they struggle to rebound (averaging just over 30 a game). However, UNI shoots a very high percentage at 48% per game, good enough for 16th in the nation. Perhaps a sigh of relief for the Panthers is that Wyoming ranks even lower in rebounds per game which will make the battle on the boards even more pivotal in this game. It won't be a blow out, but I have a hard time believing that Wyoming will dance into the weekend.

Zach's Take: The East region is difficult to predict because, as alluded to above, there are lower-seeded teams who know how to win in March. While Virginia is extremely stingy on defense, the injury to Justin Anderson is a concern. In addition, Louisville has been a different team without Chris Jones and questions surround their ability to make a run. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans looked fantastic in the Big Ten Tournament and Jay Wright has had Villanova on a roll all season long. And let us not forget Northern Iowa and Oklahoma, two teams who have spent the majority of the season in the Top 25.

So who advances to Indianapolis? Virginia is my pick because of defense. Defense and pace of play is the name of the game in the East region. Northern Iowa will present major problems because of the way they slow the game down. If the Panthers advance to the Elite 8 don't be surprised, and if they meet Virginia there then the first one to 40 wins the game.

Will Villanova be the first one seed to lose? Some people believe LSU might be poised to knock off the 'Cats in the second round and there's reason to believe. The Tigers pound the glass hard and move the ball efficiently on offense.

The tallest player in the tournament, 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye, and the UC-Irvine Anteaters have plenty of size up front which has some people thinking that they could pull off a first round upset. Clearly there are question marks everywhere in the East, but bank on Virginia's defense to carry them through.

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: They were mentioned earlier and you certainly haven't forgotten them just yet: the Dayton Flyers. This year they have to earn their way into the field of 64 by beating Boise State for possession of the 11 seed in this region. Should the Flyers defeat the Broncos, I firmly believe that they will not only take down Providence, but they will also get the better of the Oklahoma Sooners in the round of 32. This is a team that knows what it's like to play on the big stage and they have their core still intact from last year's Elite 8 team. Archie Miller has this program headed in the right direction and another trip to the Sweet 16 looks like a very strong possibility.

Zach's Take: Contrary to Nate's pick, I have Providence as my upset alert. No, it's not an upset if Providence defeats Boise State/Dayton in the first round, but it will be if they defeat Oklahoma in the second round. I think they will and it's because of the Friars' backcourt tandem. LeDontae Henton and Kris Dunn combine to average 35 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists per game. Stopping OU's Buddy Hield is no easy task, but Providence was oh-so-close to upsetting North Carolina last season and this year Ed Cooley's squad will make some noise.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: A big determining factor in Oklahoma's success will be the play of big man Ryan Spangler. Spangler averages 10 points and 8 rebounds a game but is fresh off of a blown lay-up that would have sent the Sooners into the overtime against the eventual Big 12 champion Iowa State Cyclones. As physical and tough as Spangler is, it's hard to see him shying away from redeeming himself of the heart break that ended Oklahoma's conference season. He not only is a big part of what Oklahoma does, but he's also a veteran leader who epitomizes their team identity. If Spangler enters the tournament ready to dominate, the Sooners may make some noise in the East region.

Zach's Take: Malcolm Brogdon is the player to watch for Virginia. With Justin Anderson's hand injury, Brogdon shouldered much of the load during the NCAA Tournament and his second half effort against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament was admirable. If Anderson isn't his usual self, then Tony Bennett's squad will need Brogdon's best effort again. When Virginia plays, points are usually at a premium so expect Brogdon to lead the Cavs' offensive attack. The best player on one of the nation's best teams has to show up in March if they are to make the tournament. Expect Brogdon's best effort.

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