Monday, March 16, 2015

Bracket Breakdown: The Midwest

Of the four regions, the Midwest may have the most intrigue due to the one seed it plays host to: the Wildcats of Kentucky. Sports fan or not, you surely know by now that John Calipari's team is only six games away from completing a perfect season. Many believe the Cats will pull it off and dance their way into history. Heck, even Vegas says that Kentucky's odds to win it all are even. Yet this region will not be a cake walk for Big Blue Nation. Kentucky has proven to be the best team in the land, but here's a look at the match-ups that make up the rest of the Midwest region.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: In an Indiana-heavy region, there is plenty of potential for two teams from the same state to meet up in the later rounds. Perhaps the two most intriguing games of the first round however, are the match-ups between West Virginia/Buffalo and Texas/Butler.

West Virginia finished fifth in a very deep Big 12 conference this season and are heading into the Dance with an overall record of 23-9. Led by Juwan Staten and Devin Williams, Bob Huggins' Mountaineers have the potential to end up in the Sweet 16, but their first game doesn't do them any favors. Bobby Hurley's Bulls are not to be overlooked, especially in the famed five/twelve game. And while statistics will always come into play when it comes to the total number of times a twelve has beat a five, Buffalo deserves credit in their own right. They only lost at Wisconsin by twelve, and were leading Kentucky by five at the half earlier this season. Bobby Hurley has a team that, going into this game, has nothing to lose and when the fact that Juwan Staten is not at full health is brought into consideration, it doesn't come as any surprise that Buffalo has more than a fighting chance to move into the round of 32.

Since 2010, the Butler Bulldogs have become America's sweethearts when it comes to March Madness. Once again, they find themselves in the tournament with aspirations of another miracle run. This year, they will be put up against a puzzling Texas team who barely, and maybe even questionably, made it into the field of 68 teams. The best news for the Longhorns is that Butler didn't finish the year ranked in the Top 25. Texas posted a horrendous record of 3-10 against ranked teams and fell off the map midway through the season. With that in mind, they still have the perfect balance of veteran leadership and young star power to lead them on what could be an unlikely run. Butler on the other hand finished 5-2 against ranked teams but has struggled to find consistency lately. The Bulldogs are 4-4 in their last eight games and will struggle to find an answer for Texas' front court. With Texas being a member of a Power Six conference, it's hard to call their potential victory an upset, but I believe the Rick Barnes and Co. will prove to be too strong for Butler to handle.

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Do the Wildcats have more March Magic in them?
Zach's Take: Kentucky. That's all you really need to know. Obviously things have changed since November, but to put it in perspective how dominant the Cats have been, they beat the two-seed in the region, Kansas, 72-40 earlier in the season. They have beaten anybody and everybody and there's no reason not to pick them to win it all. With Cliff Alexander out for Kansas and Perry Ellis a bit banged up, it's hard to see the Jayhawks getting by Kentucky.

In fact, the Jayhawks may not get by the first weekend as a matchup with in-state rival could materialize in the third round. The Shockers have a dynamite backcourt and would be charged up for that game. I would say it's a safe bet Wichita State moves on to the Sweet 16.

The team that I believe can give UK the best game is third-seeded Notre Dame. The Irish are playing great ball at the moment and looked impressive in the ACC Tournament. They are talented at every position and have no problem scoring the basketball. The issue, as is it every game against Kentucky, is rebounding. Notre Dame ranks low in both offensive and defensive rebounding and that will be a major factor in the game.

There's plenty of other intriguing teams in the region, including an Indiana team that many did not think deserved to be in the tournament. However, the Hoosiers live by the three and die by the three. When they're living, they're living large. IU shot over 40 percent from deep as a team and hit 308 thres this season. If they get hot then they could knock off a few teams.

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: The two aforementioned games, in my opinion, will result in the lower seeds being victorious, but another game that may surprise some others is the Notre Dame/Northeastern match-up. The last six times Notre Dame has been in the tournament, they've only made it out of the first round twice. While Mike Brey's team certainly has more firepower this year than in year's past, the ACC tournament champions would be foolish to overlook the Huskies who have emerged victorious in seven of their last nine games.

Zach's Take: As Nate mentioned, Bobby Hurley's Buffalo team is one to watch. I believe they will knock off a West Virginia team that doesn't shoot a very high percentage and struggles to rebound the ball at times. It's that classic 5/12 matchup and the Bulls have won their last eight games. Meanwhile, West Virginia limps into the tournament losing three of it's last four contests. Smells like an upset to me.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: This region has plenty of individuals that are game-changers and can put up great numbers. Yet the one player that I firmly believe will have the biggest impact on this region is Kansas' Perry Ellis. Before the conference tournament, Ellis suffered a sprained knee and was not as mobile as we have seen him during the tournament. With freshman Cliff Alexander ruled out for the tournament, Ellis' health is an even bigger concern because Bill Self will need to deal with that lack of depth. More importantly, Ellis averages 14 points and 7 rebounds a game. If the Jayhawks want any shot at avenging the 32-point embarrassment they suffered against Kentucky at the beginning of the season, Ellis will have to be at the top of his game. If that knee holds up, Kansas may be able to punch a ticket to Indy. But if poor health plagues Kansas' veteran leader, the Jayhawks may have trouble escaping the round of 32.

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Auguste leads a well-balanced Notre Dame squad into the Dance
Zach's Take: It's a guard's game now, but Nate and I have both chosen big men as the players to watch in the Midwest Region. Keep your eye on Notre Dame junior forward, Zach Auguste. Auguste averages 12.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on a team that features plenty of guards. In a region with Texas, Kansas and Kentucky, Auguste is going to have to be huge for the Irish. He will need to stay out of foul trouble and rebound the basketball if Notre Dame is to make any noise. If the Elite 8 matchup with Kentucky does happen, Auguste would have to battle with UK's big men and that's about the toughest task in college basketball. In the ACC championship against North Carolina, Auguste battled with the UNC bigs and finished with 16 points, 13 rebounds and only one foul. That's exactly what Notre Dame will need from him during its tournament run.

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