Monday, March 14, 2011

MLB Preseason Predictions: National League Central Preview

Aroldis Chapman
The National League Central division always goes four or five teams deep that could contend for the division title and this year will be no different. The Reds are the defending champions and it seems they have finally climbed out of the Central Division cellar for good. Their usual counterpart, St. Louis, was shaping up to be a very strong team this year until they received the bad news that Adam Wainwright would need Tommy John surgery. Obviously, the Cardinals can not replace him (see previous article from February) but they should still be able to contend. Keep an eye on the Milwaukee Brewers who have a very strong lineup and added former Cy Young award winner Zach Greinke in the offseason. The Chicago Cubs always look good on paper but then they play terrible during the season and miss the playoffs. This year is no different, they have a new manager and a lineup that should score in bunches but we can't count on that. Houston is still trying to get back on their feet after losing all of their stars from the 2005 National League Championship team and the Pirates hope that young talent can finally get them a winning season but that won't be this year.

1. Cincinnati Reds
It was a hard choice for number one until Wainwright was declared out for the year. Now, without a doubt, the Reds should win the Central Division for the second year in a row. Joey Votto is fresh off an MVP year and some think he is just as good as Albert Pujols. He still has a long way to go before he reaches the level Pujols is on but he is an incredible young talent. The Reds have the best pitching staff in the Central with Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. Perhaps the most intriguing of the starting five is Aroldis Chapman, a Cuban import who has a fastball that hits triple digits routinely. This will be his first full season and hitters aren't happy about that. Dusty Baker got an extension as manager and he has a club that could stand atop the Central for quite a while.

2. St. Louis Cardinals
It has been a dramatic offseason for the Cardinals, something this organization is not used to, but once they get out on the field and can just play ball they will be the same old Cardinals. Albert Pujols didn't sign an extension but that shouldn't affect his production on the field and he's my preseason MVP pick. Matt Holliday had a good year in 2010 and he and Pujols will need to score runs to support an average pitching staff. St. Louis also added Lance Berkman and Berkamn needs to play like he did in Houston and not in New York. If he does then the Cards definitely can be a contender.

3. Milwaukee Brewers
This is my team to watch in the National League this year because it seems they are ready to breakout. Actually, they need to break out because their window is closing. It's hard to keep a team together more than a few years and some of these young guys are going to leave the Brew Crew if they don't win soon. Winning shouldn't be a problem this year. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are back in the middle of the lineup along with Rickie Weeks. Milwaukee also has two big arms at the top of their pitching staff in Greinke and Yovani Gallardo which means that this year should be the Brewers year.

4. Chicago Cubs
Poor Lou Pinella. The man had all the right pieces, or so it seemed, but he couldn't get his players to produce. Now Mike Quade takes over in the dugout and he inherits the same group of players plus a few ex-Tampa Bay Rays who know what it's like to be in the World Series. Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Zambrano better put up good numbers this year or they may find themselves traded at the deadline. If the Cubs are to win they should rely on three young players in Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin and Darwin Barney to get the job done. Also, Carlos Pena and Matt Garza both signed in the offseason and they are from a winning franchise in Tampa Bay. They ought to teach the Cubs veterans how to do that thing they call winning.

5. Houston Astros
There isn't much to get excited about in Houston and this is going to be another down year for the Astros. Unless Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn can become muster up Herculean efforts the 'Stros will be in a contest with the Pirates to see who can be last place in the Central. Wandy Rodriguez is a talented pitcher but has no help in the rotation.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The night I was born back in 1991 the Pirates were facing the Braves in the NLCS and the following year in 1992 they had a winning season but since then they haven't had one. Most years they aren't even close and this year will be more of the same. The roster is filled with young players but the only one worth noting is outfielder, Andrew McCutchen. Other than that the Bucs will be playing in a beautiful ballpark with no one their to watch because they can't win.

Best Lineup: Milwaukee Brewers
Best Pitching Staff: Cincinnati Reds

Best Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Best Pitcher: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

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