Bracket Breakdown: The South

The South region is ruled by big men, which makes this particular quadrant of the bracket all the more exciting. The physicality and strength that the top teams in this region provide are sure to provide us with numerous memorable match-ups. Headlining this region is the top-seeded Blue Devils of Duke University and their star freshman center Jahlil Okafor. If Duke hopes to punch a ticket to Indy, Okafor and the rest of Duke's front line will have their hands full with players such as Joshua Smith (Georgetown), Winston Shepard  (San Diego State), and Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga). But don't be fooled, the back courts in this region aren't pushovers. Yet with such talented forwards and centers, which front court will lead their team into the month of April? Zach was too busy working the Illinois State-Green Bay NIT game. So I'll take this one solo.

General Overview: Duke is number one and Gonzaga is number two. One is looking for redemption after an embarrassing opening round exit to a 14 seed, and the other is looking to advance to their first Final Four in school history. While both teams are clearly talented enough to make it to Indy, a handful of lower seeded teams will make sure that the road to the Final Four is a tough one.

We've said it before, we'll say it again: March is not about who's better on paper, it's about who's on a hot streak at the right time. Two teams in particular are rolling at a time when momentum can sometimes mean more than talent. Iowa State and SMU, both conference tournament winners in their own right, have their sights set on Final Four appearances and are equipped to make those dreams come true. Iowa State has won eight of their last ten games (including five wins over ranked opponents) and have won five straight. Southern Methodist, on the other hand, have won seventeen of their last twenty and have won four straight. Fred Hoiberg and Larry Brown will have their teams ready to roll and, while they'll take it one game at a time, will surely be focused on catching flights to Indianapolis in three weeks.

Upset Alert: You remember them as the Cinderella of 2008. You remember them as the Stephen Curry-led Davidson Wildcats. Yet this year's Davidson squad is not to be disregarded as Curry's team was pre-March Madness. Winners of ten of their last eleven, Davidson has not just beaten their opponents, they've disposed of them. Their average margin of victory is just under fifteen points per game in those ten wins and with the seventh-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes in mind, the Wildcats look to build off of their recent success. What makes this team so special is that four players average double digits in the points category, with Taylor Kalinoski (17 ppg) and Jack Gibbs (16.3 ppg) leading the charge. Even more dangerous than their balanced attack is the depth that Bob McKillop's team has. Ten players average over ten minutes a game which means plenty of fresh legs for the Hawkeyes to keep track of.

Add all of this in with the facts that Davidson's ball movement results in 17 assists per game (good for 3rd in the nation) and their ability to shoot 47% per game enables them to put up 80 points per game (good for 6th in the nation), and you have a force to be reckoned with. Fran McCaffery's team will need to be up to the challenge or an opening round exit is sure to be in store for the Hawkeyes squad that did not finish in the top 50 in points, assists, rebounds, or field goal percentage per game (Davidson was top 35 in three of the four categories). Iowa will not be an easy victory, but if there were an upset in this region that I would pay close attention to, it would definitely be this seven/ten match-up.

Player to Watch: SMU was highlighted earlier in this post, and a big part of their potential for success in this tournament is because of the stellar play of their junior point guard Nic Moore. The Mustangs offense runs through him as he averages 14 points and 5 assists per game. Aside from the numbers he puts up, Moore's mere presence on the floor is also critical for Larry Brown's team. He's the only member of the team that averages more than 28 minutes per game and is on the court for 34 and a half minutes, on average. The question remains if Moore can bounce back from a sub par performance in the American Conference championship (11 points on 3-14 shooting, 1-7 from three point range), but if he returns to form in their opening match-up against the UCLA Bruins, SMU might ride the coattails of Nic Moore deep into the tournament.

Reaction to March Madness: Day 2

FGCU took G'Town completely out of their game and moved on

Day two of March Madness provided plenty of down-to-the-wire finishes, but with those finishes came poor decision making and even worse free throw shooting. Cincinnati and Kansas State are going home early and it's because they didn't execute. Georgetown is heading home because they ran into an ultra-athletic Florida Gulf Coast team that took it to them from the start. Iowa State was very impressive and the Bill Self-Roy Williams match up is on. Here are six observations from Day 2.

1. Free throw shooting is arguably the most important team skill
Cincinnati and Creighton was a close game throughout and that could only mean one thing: free throw shooting would be key. The Bearcats found themselves behind late in the game and had multiple chances at the line to bring the game closer and they failed to do so. With 53 seconds remaining a flagrant one foul was called on Doug McDermott, but Shaquille Thomas missed two crucial free throws that proved costly down the stretch. If you need one stat to see why Creighton won the game then look at free throw shooting. The Blue Jays were 22-25 and Cincinnati was just 4-9.

2. The rules about throwing elbows have to change
Staying in the same game, the play that McDermott received the flagrant one foul for was terrible. I completely understand the NCAA doesn't want players throwing elbows, but it's getting ridiculous. Cincinnati was pressing and they brought an excellent trap at McDermott with 53 seconds left. McDermott didn't really throw an elbow, but he attempted to clear space so that he could advance the ball either by a pass or dribble. However, the referees got him for an elbow and it nearly changed the course of the game. This is a rule that the NCAA will have to look at because I understand it's about player safety, but the rule is far too strict. The ball handler must be able to clear space and that requires him to be strong with the ball and natural strong elbow swings.

3. Wisconsin puts on a clinic for bad offense
Bo Ryan and the Badgers win and no one can dispute the fact that he has built a great program. However, Wisconsin is not built for March because of their inability to score the ball. The suffocating defense is great, but it only goes so far when the team fails to score the ball. Watching Wisconsin try and come back in that game hurt. Like it was mind-numbingly bad how poor they played at the offensive end. They shot 15-59 from the field, 7-30 from three and only Sam Dekker scored in double figures. Wisconsin deserves respect for sticking to their system, but they must find some players who can score the ball or they will continue to exit the tournament earlier than they want.

4. Illinois vs. Colorado was about who wanted to lose more
Have you ever seen so many droughts in one game? It was unbelievable to watch both teams struggle to score a basket. Illinois won the game even though they played bad. It just so happened that Colorado played even worse. Illinois lived by the three, died by the three and then was resurrected by the three late in the game. That's not exactly the recipe for success, but in the tournament it doesn't matter how you win as long as you get the win. Neither team deserved to win the game and the Illini have their work cut out for them against Miami. Another shooting performance like this one will send them home to Champaign.

Howland's days in LA may be over

5. Georgetown is not a safe bet when playing a double digit seed
The Hoyas lost to Florida Gulf Coast who, just three years ago, couldn't even qualify for the tournament. The Eagles didn't just beat Georgetown -- they completely dominated them for much of the game. In the second half the lead was double digits and the Hoyas were never able to make a comeback until the end. It's the fifth year in a row that Georgetown has lost to a double digit seed and it's a disturbing trend for John Thompson III. Florida Gulf Coast was unbelievably athletic and didn't back down from the spotlight. Instead, they took right to G'Town and the Hoyas were the ones who seemed like they weren't ready.

6. It may be time for Ben Howland and UCLA to part ways
Ben Howland had a magnificent run at UCLA for awhile, but times have changed drastically. After two poor seasons the Bruins had something of a revival, but they still underachieved. Howland brought in a dynamite recruiting class and the freshmen did live up to the hype but UCLA was bounced in the second round and ultimately it's a disappointing end to the season. It may be time for Howland to go in a different direction and UCLA may want to start fresh. It seems the success is in the rear view mirror and all is not well in Westwood.

The second round is in the books and it did not disappoint. Harvard and Florida Gulf Coast are the tournament darlings and the West Region is all sorts of messed up. The one seeds are alive, but they all face tough challenges in the third round. Also don't bank on the two seeds all advancing. Duke and Ohio State have very difficult games and the unpredictability is the beauty of this tournament. Also, get yourself prepared for the VCU-Michigan showdown in the morning as it should be something special.

Bracket Breakdown: South

Otto Porter of Georgetown

The South Region is the most top heavy bracket of the four. Kansas headlines the region as the number two overall seed and they are joined by Georgetown, Florida and Michigan. KU won the Big 12, Florida won the SEC and Georgetown won the Big East. Michigan was a couple of bricked free throws from sharing the Big Ten title. Clearly, this is a bracket of winners, but also take a look at the coaches. Of the 16 coaches in the bracket, 10 have won a national title. It's also likely that one of those 10 adds some more hardware to their office. Let's take a look...

South Region winner: Georgetown Hoyas
The Hoyas are going to win the South Region for one reason: Otto Porter. The do-it-all wing player leads Georgetown in almost every major statistical category and he can beat opponents from anywhere on the floor. The road won't be easy for John Thompson's squad though. Most likely Florida will be waiting in the Sweet 16 and then either Kansas or Michigan will present a huge challenge in the Elite 8. Count on the Hoyas because of they are battle tested and they are 6-2 against ranked opponents. Behind Porter, expect G'Town to be back in the Final Four for the first time since 2007.

Upset Pick: Minnesota over UCLA
Minnesota isn't your typical 11 seed. The Golden Gophers defeated five ranked opponents, including #1 Indiana. However, they have lost three in a row and that doesn't always bode well coming into tournament play. Despite that, they should beat UCLA for a couple of reasons. One, they have played far superior competition and two, UCLA is without Jordan Adams. The freshman guard broke his foot during the Pac-12 tournament and the Bruins will struggle without him.

Nate Wolters of South Dakota State

Potentially Intriguing Matchup: Anybody who has to play VCU
Okay so that's kind of cheating, but anybody VCU plays will have a hard time. The Rams qualified for the Final Four in 2011 and their unique style of play makes them a difficult matchup. However, they will have to take down the titans to reach Atlanta, but that is something they have done before. Could they stop Trey Burke in the third round? Could they knock off Kansas just like they did in 2011? Will Florida or Georgetown be too much for them handle? Who knows. We also can't be sure they will even win their first game against Akron, but we can be sure that they will bring 100% effort and be fun to watch.

Player to Watch: Nate Wolters, guard, South Dakota State
Wolters has led South Dakota State to the Big Dance for the second straight year and the do-it-all guard can win a game by himself. The senior averages 22.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game and had a 53 point outburst on February 7th. His scoring average is fourth best in the nation. Wolters comes from the Summit League, but has performed against top competition. He posted 30 points against Alabama at the beginning of the season and then had 28 against New Mexico before Christmas.

Bottom Line: The South is loaded, but Otto Porter and Georgetown have been very consistent and have defeated some of the nation's elite. They will be in Atlanta.

Pac-12 Dominating 2012 Recruiting Class

Shabazz Muhammad will become the new face of the Pac-12

I’m a big-time Chicago Bulls fan, being that I’m about hour south of the Windy City, but college basketball has always outweighed the NBA for me. With that being said, I have paid attention more to the post-season NCAA coaching and player moves than I have to the NBA playoff races. One of the things that have caught my eye about the upcoming college basketball season is the successful recruiting done by the Pac 12. There is a possibility that seventeen of the top 100 recruits will be making their way west this coming fall in hopes that they can help restore a conference that is currently in shambles.

This past season for the Pac 12 was, to say the least, unentertaining. Colorado won the conference tournament which should send up a red flag right away. Colorado? Come on, the team finished 11-7 in conference play. Teams with 11-7 records in other conferences finished, at the highest, third or fourth. Not to say that other teams such as Washington, Arizona, and Oregon didn’t have decent years, but the Pac 12 was once a feared conference. So what happened?

Maybe it was the lack of recruiting to that whole region of the country. Maybe it was the falling out of programs that were once the most respected in the nation. Yes, that must be it. Teams like UCLA and Arizona were dysfunctional to say the least. Arizona made a great run in the tournament in 2011, yes, but this year they did not even make the field. Instead, they were paired with Bucknell in the first round of the NIT and lost to the eighth seeded Bison by nine points. UCLA on the other was suffering from locker room issues as well as player/coach relationships for about the second or third year straight. The situation got so bad to the point that ESPN talked about it about four days a week and Coach Ben Howland’s job security was in jeopardy. The season finished on the lowest note it has in awhile for the member of the Power Six conferences.

Now, let us fast forward to 2012. You can’t change the past, Timon and Pumbaa even said so. But with the recruiting that has been done by the Pac 12 this past winter and spring will surely change the future on the west coast. According to the ESPNU Top 100, seventeen rising stars could attend and play for a Pac 12 school this coming fall/winter. Ten of those recruits will potentially make their way to either UCLA or Arizona (Anthony Bennett, Christopher Obekpa, Torian Graham, and Savon Goodman are have not yet committed). Ten percent of the top recruits will do their best to aid the resurgence of the Pac 12.

It’s already exciting to see guys turn down currently successful schools like Kentucky, Duke, and Ohio State and instead choose schools that are rebuilding. That to me shows character in young athletes. I thought that Shabazz Muhammad’s quote saying that he wants to help rebuild UCLA was extremely mature because, nowadays, so many athletes want to team up and play together to win. Muhammad could’ve gone straight to Lexington with Nerlens Noel and tried to make it to Atlanta. It’s refreshing to see that some athletes still have the confidence that they don’t have to team up with anyone to win. However, in no way am I saying that top recruits that attend the same universities are trying to take the easy way out because you see athletes recruit each other all the time. What I’m saying is it takes a special player to go to a school that’s struggling and try to bring the program back to the top. That’s what’s so admirable.

This next season brings in a lot of fresh, young talent and with the anti-climactic finish of this past year’s tournament, I’m ready to go. With the new additions to the Pac 12, there’s no argument as to why they can’t be represented in the tournament by three or four teams. Last year was rough on the west coast, but this year will surely present much more talent and competition.