Breaking Down the Brackets

How late were you up last night? The NCAA bracket was announced and, more than ever, this one will be hard to pick. Much has been said about the selection committee and their logic in letting Virginia Commonwealth and UAB in and keeping Virginia Tech and Colorado. To me, if I could pick one word to describe this tournament it would be mediocre. There are so many mediocre teams and teams with the same talent level that the tournament doesn't have nearly the same star power that it normally boasts. Is that bad? No, not in my mind, because the teams are so evenly matched that there could be more instant classics than ever and people better have some upsets picked because these so-called "big schools" aren't head and shoulders above the mid-majors. Also, there are so many schools from power conferences with low seeds that they may be able to turn it on and win a few games. But, let's take a look at the bracket and I'll tell you what games to watch for, players to keep an eye on, who to pick and who to avoid picking.

Games to Watch

East Region: (6) Xavier vs. (11) Marquette

Marquette comes from the powerful Big East but they barely squeaked in. Xavier has been a power from the Atlantic-10 and despite not winning the conference tournament comes in with a 24-7 record. Marquette is 20-14 but has played a loaded Big East schedule. Both teams play solid defense and we shouldn't expect a high scoring game. Jimmy Butler (16.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is superb for the Golden Eagles and Tu Holloway (20.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 5.5 apg) is a dynamite little guard. You can pick either team here and feel good about it because both are solid teams.

East Region: (8) George Mason vs. (9) Villanova

Two teams going in opposite directions in this game. George Mason won 16 of their last 17 games while Villanova lost 10 of their last 15. We all remember George Mason's magical run to the Final Four in 2006 and no one is counting them out this year. Definitely pick them to win this game but it should be a thriller. Nova has had time to practice and coach Jay Wright says they have had good practices and they're ready to go. They better be because Mason is for real.

West Region: (4) Texas vs. (13) Oakland

Texas is playing great basketball right now and I wouldn't expect many people to pick against them. I'm not but I will say this game could be a good one. A scary one too for those who have Texas going deep into the tournament. The Horns are young with several talented players. Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton are hard to stop and Texas has four players who average double figures. For Oakland, keep your eye on Keith Benson who averages a double-double. Three other players are in double figures and this could be a possible upset.

Southwest Region: (8) UNLV vs. (9) Illinois

The Illini limped into the NCAA Tournament and should feel fortunate to be a nine seed. Many were expecting a much lower seed but they do have a very tough opponent in UNLV. Lon Kruger will face his former team and the Runnin' Rebels are favored in this game. They have wins over Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and Kansas State this year and Illinois comes into the game losing four of their last six. Demetri McCamey will have to play well for the Illini to move on, but that's not always a given.

Southeast Region: (5) Kansas State vs. (12) Utah State

Utah State should feel cheated by the seed they received after posting a 30-3 record and winning the WAC but it is what it is and they must prepare for a Kansas State team who, after struggling in the middle of the season, has turned it around and is playing their best basketball. This is probably one of the hardest games to pick but Utah State could be that Cinderella team that every bracket has. Frank Martin will have Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats ready to go and we should be treated to a great game.

Players to Watch

Kemba Walker, guard, Connecticut: We all know about Kemba and there is not a hotter player in the nation right now than him. He led the Huskies through the Big East conference tournament, winning five games in five days. He averaged 38 minutes in the five games and for the year he put up 23 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

Jimmer Fredette, guard, BYU: Jimmer-mania could take over March and it will have to if BYU is going to advance past the first weekend. Without Brandon Davies the Cougars rely even more heavily on Fredette but the man just keeps producing. He dropped 52 points in the mountain West semi-finals and in the second round he will need a big effort against either Gonzaga or St. John's.

Jon Diebler, guard, Ohio State: The overall number one seed is the most complete team and Diebler is a big reason why they are winning and winning big. He is such a deadly three point shooter, shooting nearly 50% from deep. His shooting stretches out the defense and allows Jared Sullinger to go to work down low.

Like I said before, this bracket is not a good one. It is filled with bad teams and resembles an NIT bracket but the games should be highly competitive. As always, expect upsets and there really isn't a lock for four Final Four teams. The four number one seeds seem good enough but remember, only one time has that happened. Also, some teams that people would want to pick are not hot at the moment such as Villanova or Illinois. Mid-majors are stronger than ever and this March should be excited. Here are some stats that you may want to know while you pick your bracket. All stats are since 2005 when the Big East expanded

Final Four teams by conference/National Champions by conference

ACC 4/3

Big East 5

Big Ten 5

Big 12 1/1

Pac 10 3

SEC 3/2

Colonial 1

C-USA 1

Horizon 1

Final Four by Seeds

1. 11 teams

2. 5 teams

3. 2 teams

4. 2 teams

5. 3 teams

11. 1 team

3/14 Upsets--3 times  4/13 Upsets--6 times  5/12 Upsets--9 times  6/11 Upsets--9 times

As you can see, people talk a lot about the 5/12 upset but there have been just as many 6/11 upsets. If there were to be any 5/12 upsets this year I would look at Richmond beating Vanderbilt, Clemson over West Virginia or Utah State over Kansas State. Missouri is an 11 seed that could upset Cincinnati at the six spot and be careful of picking Georgetown. USC or VCU could be primed for an upset. We have already mentioned Marquette and Xavier's matchup as well.

As always, it will be an exciting time starting Thursday and people will be mad because their bracket is busted but, hey, this is March Madness and it is the most fun time of the sports year. For my Final Four I have settled in on Ohio State, Texas, Kansas and Pittsburgh but that will probably change before Thursday. That's the fun of it, trying to figure out who to pick. No matter who you do pick though you will always second guess yourself and that's when we say, "Let the Madness begin!"