Monday, March 16, 2015

Bracket Breakdown: The Midwest

Of the four regions, the Midwest may have the most intrigue due to the one seed it plays host to: the Wildcats of Kentucky. Sports fan or not, you surely know by now that John Calipari's team is only six games away from completing a perfect season. Many believe the Cats will pull it off and dance their way into history. Heck, even Vegas says that Kentucky's odds to win it all are even. Yet this region will not be a cake walk for Big Blue Nation. Kentucky has proven to be the best team in the land, but here's a look at the match-ups that make up the rest of the Midwest region.

General Overview:
Nate's Take: In an Indiana-heavy region, there is plenty of potential for two teams from the same state to meet up in the later rounds. Perhaps the two most intriguing games of the first round however, are the match-ups between West Virginia/Buffalo and Texas/Butler.

West Virginia finished fifth in a very deep Big 12 conference this season and are heading into the Dance with an overall record of 23-9. Led by Juwan Staten and Devin Williams, Bob Huggins' Mountaineers have the potential to end up in the Sweet 16, but their first game doesn't do them any favors. Bobby Hurley's Bulls are not to be overlooked, especially in the famed five/twelve game. And while statistics will always come into play when it comes to the total number of times a twelve has beat a five, Buffalo deserves credit in their own right. They only lost at Wisconsin by twelve, and were leading Kentucky by five at the half earlier this season. Bobby Hurley has a team that, going into this game, has nothing to lose and when the fact that Juwan Staten is not at full health is brought into consideration, it doesn't come as any surprise that Buffalo has more than a fighting chance to move into the round of 32.

Since 2010, the Butler Bulldogs have become America's sweethearts when it comes to March Madness. Once again, they find themselves in the tournament with aspirations of another miracle run. This year, they will be put up against a puzzling Texas team who barely, and maybe even questionably, made it into the field of 68 teams. The best news for the Longhorns is that Butler didn't finish the year ranked in the Top 25. Texas posted a horrendous record of 3-10 against ranked teams and fell off the map midway through the season. With that in mind, they still have the perfect balance of veteran leadership and young star power to lead them on what could be an unlikely run. Butler on the other hand finished 5-2 against ranked teams but has struggled to find consistency lately. The Bulldogs are 4-4 in their last eight games and will struggle to find an answer for Texas' front court. With Texas being a member of a Power Six conference, it's hard to call their potential victory an upset, but I believe the Rick Barnes and Co. will prove to be too strong for Butler to handle.

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Do the Wildcats have more March Magic in them?
Zach's Take: Kentucky. That's all you really need to know. Obviously things have changed since November, but to put it in perspective how dominant the Cats have been, they beat the two-seed in the region, Kansas, 72-40 earlier in the season. They have beaten anybody and everybody and there's no reason not to pick them to win it all. With Cliff Alexander out for Kansas and Perry Ellis a bit banged up, it's hard to see the Jayhawks getting by Kentucky.

In fact, the Jayhawks may not get by the first weekend as a matchup with in-state rival could materialize in the third round. The Shockers have a dynamite backcourt and would be charged up for that game. I would say it's a safe bet Wichita State moves on to the Sweet 16.

The team that I believe can give UK the best game is third-seeded Notre Dame. The Irish are playing great ball at the moment and looked impressive in the ACC Tournament. They are talented at every position and have no problem scoring the basketball. The issue, as is it every game against Kentucky, is rebounding. Notre Dame ranks low in both offensive and defensive rebounding and that will be a major factor in the game.

There's plenty of other intriguing teams in the region, including an Indiana team that many did not think deserved to be in the tournament. However, the Hoosiers live by the three and die by the three. When they're living, they're living large. IU shot over 40 percent from deep as a team and hit 308 thres this season. If they get hot then they could knock off a few teams.

Upset Alert:
Nate's Take: The two aforementioned games, in my opinion, will result in the lower seeds being victorious, but another game that may surprise some others is the Notre Dame/Northeastern match-up. The last six times Notre Dame has been in the tournament, they've only made it out of the first round twice. While Mike Brey's team certainly has more firepower this year than in year's past, the ACC tournament champions would be foolish to overlook the Huskies who have emerged victorious in seven of their last nine games.

Zach's Take: As Nate mentioned, Bobby Hurley's Buffalo team is one to watch. I believe they will knock off a West Virginia team that doesn't shoot a very high percentage and struggles to rebound the ball at times. It's that classic 5/12 matchup and the Bulls have won their last eight games. Meanwhile, West Virginia limps into the tournament losing three of it's last four contests. Smells like an upset to me.

Player to Watch:
Nate's Take: This region has plenty of individuals that are game-changers and can put up great numbers. Yet the one player that I firmly believe will have the biggest impact on this region is Kansas' Perry Ellis. Before the conference tournament, Ellis suffered a sprained knee and was not as mobile as we have seen him during the tournament. With freshman Cliff Alexander ruled out for the tournament, Ellis' health is an even bigger concern because Bill Self will need to deal with that lack of depth. More importantly, Ellis averages 14 points and 7 rebounds a game. If the Jayhawks want any shot at avenging the 32-point embarrassment they suffered against Kentucky at the beginning of the season, Ellis will have to be at the top of his game. If that knee holds up, Kansas may be able to punch a ticket to Indy. But if poor health plagues Kansas' veteran leader, the Jayhawks may have trouble escaping the round of 32.

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Auguste leads a well-balanced Notre Dame squad into the Dance
Zach's Take: It's a guard's game now, but Nate and I have both chosen big men as the players to watch in the Midwest Region. Keep your eye on Notre Dame junior forward, Zach Auguste. Auguste averages 12.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on a team that features plenty of guards. In a region with Texas, Kansas and Kentucky, Auguste is going to have to be huge for the Irish. He will need to stay out of foul trouble and rebound the basketball if Notre Dame is to make any noise. If the Elite 8 matchup with Kentucky does happen, Auguste would have to battle with UK's big men and that's about the toughest task in college basketball. In the ACC championship against North Carolina, Auguste battled with the UNC bigs and finished with 16 points, 13 rebounds and only one foul. That's exactly what Notre Dame will need from him during its tournament run.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Bulls' Young Star Shining Brightest in Rookie Class

It was the draft class that was supposed to rival that of 2003 and 1984. Headlined by young phenoms such as Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Julius Randle, this year's draft was by far the strongest in recent years. Everything went as planned on draft night, with Wiggins and Parker going first and second overall and many teams looking toward the future with their more-than-capable rookies. Yet here we are about thirty games into this young season and the rookie class is dealing with the worst possible luck. Injuries have derailed and/or hindered the seasons of multiple rookies which has led to justifiable disappointment in how this class has turned out so far. Parker, Randle, and Joel Embiid have all lost their seasons while Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Noah Vonleh, and Doug McDermott have been sidelined for substantial amounts of time with injuries of their own.
Mirotic's rise has contributed nicely to the Bulls success

With the big names that came into the draft, expectations were that the Rookie of the Year award would be a hard-fought battle between these collegiate standouts. Yet even in spite of all the injuries, there is one rookie that is emerging as one of the best in this year's class. In 2011, the Chicago Bulls acquired Nikola Mirotic via a trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves. With little cap space to work with however, the Bulls were not able to bring their newest rookie to the States immediately. But after ridding themselves of Carlos Boozer's contract and with the departure of veteran Luol Deng, John Paxson and Gar Forman were able to work Mirotic into the fold. And now, with injuries nagging the Bulls once again, Mirotic's arrival and performance could not have come at a better time.

As odd as it sounds, the Bulls' injuries in the front court have been a blessing in disguise for not only Mirotic, but the Bulls as a whole. Veterans Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson, and Joakim Noah have all been sidelined with injuries at one point or another, which has only benefited the young star from Montenegro. It took time to adjust to the NBA game, and the minutes of playing time were not exactly abundant, but now head coach Tom Thibodeau has a wonderful problem to deal with. He now has to find a way to work Mirotic into the rotation even when everyone is healthy which is a testament to just how quickly Mirotic has managed to make an impact.

Through 26 games this season, "Niko" has played double-digit minutes 19 times. In twelve of those games he scored ten points or more, with his most impressive performance coming this past Friday against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Bulls were without Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson but, behind 27 points (6-6 shooting from three point range) from Mirotic, the Bulls walked away with a 103-97 victory over the then-second seeded team in the West. The win was huge, but the fact that Mirotic was lights out against one of the league's most stifling defenses shows just how far he's come in such a short amount of time.

Niko has shown no fear in his transition to the NBA
He's had his solid performances so far with three double-doubles off the bench. He is currently averaging eight points and five rebounds which, in comparison to Andrew Wiggins, is four points less than the number one overall pick but Mirotic does average one more rebound per game. Mirotic's three double-doubles is also two more than Wiggins who averages 31 minutes per game as opposed to Niko's 19. With all the injuries that have hindered this year's class, it's looking like it will come down to these two young stars at season's end.

Nikola Mirotic has been a pleasant surprise for Chicago. He has played hard and he makes a conscientious to better his teammates when he's on the floor. His constant improvement day in and day out has left members of the league anxiously waiting to see just how high his ceiling is. We're just over a quarter way of the way through the season but Mirotic has showed that he belongs in the rotation of one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. It's unfortunate that this year's rookie class has been plagued with injuries, but even if the entire class was healthy Mirotic has proved that he is a star that's shining brightest among the rest.