Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Active MLB First Ballot Hall of Famers

It is a common understanding that Major League Baseball has the hardest Hall of Fame to be a member of and rarely do more than two or three players get in per year. Sometimes the Hall of Fame status is thrown around much too loosely. There are good players, there are great players, and then there are Hall of Fame players. It's an exclusive group, one that includes just 202 players and 289 members overall. Only once have there been three first-ballot nominees elected in the same year (1999), not including the first year in 1936. So it's rare that players be elected so soon after retirement. I recently read a blog post that listed Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia and Miguel Cabrera as first-ballot Hall of Famers. I scoffed at that simply because it's much too early to classify those players like that. Are they on the right track? Yes. But the road ahead is a long one. What a player does in the back half of his career will decide whether or not he is a Hall of Famer or not. Many have started out strong, only to fizzle out as their bodies grow older. The list of current first-ballot players is short in my mind. Here it is...


Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Current Season: 18th Year
Career Stats: .313 batting average, 3,222 hits, 1,828 runs, 346 steals, .382 OBP
Awards: '96 Rookie of the Year, 13-time All-Star, 5 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, 5 World Series
Derek Jeter has defined winning throughout his career. Perhaps the most respected man in the game of baseball, Jeter eclipsed the 3,000 hit mark last season with a 5-5 day that was capped off with a home run. In my mind, the 3,000 hit plateau should put a player in automatically considering that only 28 men have ever achieved the feat. However, that's not all there is to Jeter. He holds the record for career postseason hits with 191 in 152 games. Obviously the fact that he has played with the Yankees has helped his cause, but that is a record that may never be broken, especially when you consider that he is still building upon it. His defense has produced five Gold Gloves and has given us some of the most memorable highlights in baseball. His unbelievable flip against the A's and his headfirst dive into the stands behind third base will be shown forever. His class, records and winning ensure that he will be in Cooperstown as soon as possible.

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Seattle Mariners
Current Season: 12th Year
Career Stats: .322 batting average, 2,544 hits, 441 stolen bases, 1,180 runs, .365 OBP, 100 assists
Awards: '01 MVP, '01 Rookie of the Year, 10-time All-Star, 10 Gold Gloves, 3 Silver Sluggers
Ichiro may have the most impressive resume when you consider he is only in his 12th full season and he missed about three or four seasons in his prime. He captured the league by storm in his first season, winning the MVP and Rookie of the Year awards. He has led the league in batting average twice, hitting an absurd .372 back in 2004. He has stolen 40+ bases five times and led the league in 2001 with 56. His outstanding arm has generated 100 assists from the outfield and counting. While he has not played on very many winning teams and the Mariners made the playoffs just once in the time he was there. While Jeter has played in 152 postseason games, Ichiro has played in just 10. Now a Yankee, he will most likely finish his career in pinstripes. At 2,544 hits he needs just 456 hits until 3,000. His 162 game average is 222 so if he keeps pace he will need just two seasons after this to reach the milestone.

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Current Season: 12th Year
Career Stats: .326 batting average, 2,193 hits, 1,353 runs, 469 home runs, 1,405 RBI
Awards: '01 RoY, 9-time All-Star, 3-time MVP ('05,'08,'09), 3 Gold Gloves, 6 Silver Sluggers, 2 WS
It's hard to believe Pujols is only in his 12th season because his numbers tell a much different story. He has a lifetime batting average of .326, is just 31 home runs away from 500, and could reach the 3,000 hit mark in about four years. If so, he would be only the fifth player to achieve both the milestones (Aaron, Mays, Murray, Palmeiro). Pujols is a three-time MVP, but perhaps more impressive is the fact that he has finished in the top ten of MVP voting every single year and finished top five in nine of those years. He hit at least .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBIs in his first ten seasons and last year came up a point and RBI shy. He is now in the American League and playing on one of the most exciting teams, the Angels. As he heads into the last stretch of his career he will cement himself as one of the greatest players of all-time.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Current Season: 19th Season
Career Stats: .305 batting average, 2,693 hits, 1,600 runs, 1,609 RBI, 464 home runs, .405 OBP
Awards: '99 MVP, 8-time All-Star, 2 Silver Sluggers, 1995 World Series title
Chipper is probably the only player on this list that doesn't have the eye-popping statistic that ensures he will be enshrined. He will retire at the end of this season, his 19th in the league and with the Braves, and while he won't finish with either 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, he will be in an elite group of third basemen. Chipper has always been a hitter, batting over .300 ten times in his career and on his way to number eleven. He led the league in 2008 with an outstanding .364 average. He won the 1999 MVP award after batting .319 with 45 home runs and 110 RBI. He has a lifetime .305 batting average and has averaged over 30 homers and 100 RBIs in his career. If Chipper's numbers and lack of awards don't seem worthy of the Hall then consider this: while George Brett has more hits than Chipper, Jones has the same batting average as Brett and has more home runs, RBI, runs, and a better OBP.

Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B, New York Yankees
Current Season: 19th Year
Career Stats:.301 batting average, 2,872 hits, 1,878 runs, 1,937 RBI, 644 home runs, 314 stolen bases
Awards: 14-time All-Star, 3-time MVP ('03,'05,'07), 2 Gold Gloves, 10 Silver Sluggers, '09 WS title
There are two things that separate A-Rod from the rest of the players on this list: how great his numbers are and steroids. An admitted steroid user during his three seasons in Texas, Rodriguez does have a tainted career. However, I have included him on this list because he has still produced after the steroids. He was excellent before them and has been excellent after them. I think that guys like McGwire, Sosa and Palmeiro will find it hard to be elected, but A-Rod admitted it and, as far as we know, has stopped. Because of that, I think he will be elected. He definitely has the numbers. He has led the league in home runs five times and could eclipse 700 by the time it's all said and done (he needs 56). He has led the league in batting average once and RBIs twice. He has over 300 steals on top of all the hitting and he has a chance to finish with a .300+ batting average, 700 home runs, 2,000 RBIs, and 3,000 hits. Those are numbers that few men will ever achieve.

Mariano Rivera, P, New York Yankees
Current Season: 18th Year
Career Stats: 76-58 Win-Loss, 2.21 ERA, 608 saves
Awards: 12-time All-Star, All-time saves leader, 5 World Series titles
Domination. Mariano Rivera has dominated competition for 18 years now and has been a part of five Yankees World Series championship teams. He is the all-time leader in saves with 608 and that is a number that will continue to grow once he comes back from an ACL tear. He has been the closer for the best dynasty in awhile and even at the age of 42 he still dominates with his devastating cutter and nearly ensures a Yanks win once he comes out of the bullpen. He is the best relief pitcher of all-time and, as the game changes, he has set the standard for closers. For that reason he will be elected into the Hall as soon as possible.

The Next Three (Questionables)
Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Current Season: 16th Year
Career Stats: .320 batting average, 2,420 hits, 1,360 runs, 1,345 RBI, 354 home runs, .419 OBP
Awards: 5-time All-Star, 3 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers
Helton has decent numbers, but they don't stack up to the players listed above. He is an above average fielder and can flat out hit the ball, but will voters hold the fact that he played in Coors Field against him? I don't think a player should be penalized for that, but it will definitely be a discussion among the voters. Helton lacks the accolades of other players in his era. Perhaps he will get in at some point, but not first ballot.

Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Current Season:16th Year
Career Stats: .284 batting average, 2,142 hits, 1,088 runs, 1,314 RBI, 413 home runs
Awards: 6-time All-Star, 2005 World Series title
Konerko may not be a Hall of Famer at all, but he has been a steady player his entire career. He has been the face of the White Sox since Frank Thomas left and he was a key component of the 2005 World Series team. Konerko could play a few more years and potentially build on his numbers, which would make the discussion may be a little easier.

Carlos Beltran, CF, New York Mets
Current Season: 15th Year
Career Stats: .283 batting average, 2,025 hits, 1,247 runs, 1,233 RBI, 327 HRs, 303 stolen bases
Awards: '99 Rookie of the Year, 7-time All-Star, 3 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers
Beltran has quietly put together a nice career and is having one of his best seasons for the Cardinals here in 2012. The 1999 Rookie of the Year for the Royals has three Gold Gloves to his name and surpassed the 2,000 hit mark this season. Were it not for injuries, we may be giving Beltran a closer look.

On the Right Track (Too Early to Tell)
Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers
Current Season: 8th Year
Career Stats: 118-64 Win-Loss, 3.44 ERA, 1,367 SO
Awards: '06 Rookie of the Year, '11 Cy Young Award, '11 MVP, 5-time All-Star
It's a long road ahead, but Verlander averages 18 wins per season. At that pace, he will need to pitch nine more seasons like that to reach the 300 win mark. He has a Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP trophy in his collection and has appeared in the World Series once as well. The 3,000 strikeout plateau is also one that could be attainable for Verlander. At the pace he is going he will need just eight more seasons to hit 3,000.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Current Season: 10th Year
Career Stats: .317 batting average, 1,736 hits, 923 runs, 1,075 RBI, 304 home runs, .394 OBP
Awards: 7-time All-Star, 3 Silver Sluggers, 2003 World Series title
Cabrera is well on his way to the 500 home run mark and could reach it in about six seasons. 3,000 hits is a little bit more of a stretch but he is on pace to reach it in about seven seasons. Having Prince Fielder behind him in the lineup will help him greatly. Combine the hitting stats with the All-Star appearances and the Silver Sluggers and you may have a Hall of Famer in the making.

C.C. Sabathia, P, Cleveland Indians
Current Season: 12th Year
Career Stats: 187-99 Win-Loss, 3.51 ERA, 2,150 SO
Awards: 2007 Cy Young Award, 6-time All-Star, 2009 World Series title
Sabathia is in his 12th season but 300 wins may be a reachable goal. He is on pace to reach it in 2018 which will mean he would have to keep his 17-game win average going until his is 37 years old. That's not going to be easy. I think 250 wins is going to become the new 300 and Sabathia should achieve that. 3,000 strikeouts should be easier for the big lefty. He is on pace to reach that by 2016. If he can add another Cy Young to his collection that would help his case tremendously.

There are obviously several more players who could be added to the last list and maybe a few more on the Questionables list. I really don't think there's anybody else who is a lock right now though. The team listed next to the player is the one I think they will go in as for the Hall of Fame as of now. If you have any comments or arguments feel free to post below!


No comments:

Post a Comment