Wednesday, December 7, 2011

An Early Look at Euro 2012

By: Joe Wiens
Though the first match isn't for another 6 months, the 2012 European Football Championship officially kicked into high gear last Friday with the final draw in Kiev, Ukraine.  The 2012 European Football Championship will be the last European championship containing 16 nations; in 2016, the tournament will expand to 24 teams.  Hardcore soccer junkies often consider the Euros the greatest soccer tournament in the world due to the overall quality of the squads, combined with deepest continent talent pool, creates a more competitive atmosphere than the World Cup.  Also, the Euros have been notorious for fielding unexpected champions, such as Greece in 2004 and Denmark in 1992.  After all of the qualifying matches, four pots were organized based on UEFA national team coefficients and a random draw decided the four groups.  For those who are unfamiliar with the process, each group must consist of one team from each different pot.  Pot 1 automatically included the two hosts, Poland and Ukraine, and they were joined by two 2010 World Cup finalists, Spain and Netherlands.  Perennial contenders were placed in pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, and Russia.  Constant challengers Croatia, Greece, Portugal, and Sweden composed Pot 3; and Denmark, France, Czech Republic, and the Republic of Ireland completed pot 4.  A very early breakdown of the group stage:

Group A: Poland (Co-Hosts) (FIFA World Ranking - 66), Russia (12), Greece (14), Czech Republic (33)
Striker Robert Lewandowski's play will
determine Poland's fate in the group stage
Easily ranks as the weakest group of the four, Group A features of a couple nations formerly under communist rule.  Russia, arguably the worst team in Pot 2 (Russia, Germany, Italy, and England), drew Poland from Pot 1, avoiding the likes of Spain and the Netherlands, and Greece and the Czech Republic, two of the less talented teams in their respective pots, igniting much rejoicing in Moscow.  The Russians qualified with relative ease through a stout defense, allowing only four goals in 10 qualifying matches.  Tottenham striker Roman Pavlyuchenko, who bagged four goals through qualification, will cause trouble up front for many sides.  Many are downplaying the ultra defensive 2004 European Champions, Greece, even after an impressive undefeated record in qualifying, toppling the Balkan powerhouse Croatia to win its group.  Greece's possesses the most balanced attack of any squad to the Euros racking up 14 goals in qualifying, but no player scored more than two goals.  Although hosts Switzerland and Austria did not make it out of their respective groups as host countries in 2008, expect the Poles to fare better in front of home crowds and battle for a second place finish.  Watch out for young Polish striker Robert Lewandowski, he's scored 10 goals in 15 matches for Borussia Dortmund (the German League champions and current leader), and his club teammate, midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski, twice voted Polish footballer of the year in 2008 and 2010.  The Czechs stumbled through qualifying, needing to defeat Montenegro 3 -0 (on aggregate) in a playoff to secure its place in the Euros, and will be the long shot to get out of the group.  Arsenal midfielder Tomas Rosicky will be pulling the strings in midfield for the Czechs and look out for left back Michal Kadlec, the defender loves to get forward on the flanks, scoring four goals in qualifying.  Teams in this group will rely on their defense to earn points so don't be surprised to see many low scoring matches.
Group B: Netherlands (2), Germany (3), Portugal (7), Denmark (11)
Keep your eyes on Portugal striker Cristiano Ronaldo, who
will surely produce a few jaw-dropping moments 
Ouch.  If there has been a better example of a group of death, in any recent European championship or World Cup, I would like to see it.  Group B boasts the 2010 World Cup runner up in Netherlands, a ruthlessly efficient German team, a fabulously skilled Portugal side, and a qualifying group winner in Denmark.  The Netherlands scored an astounding 37 goals in 10 qualifying matches, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar accounting for 12 of them, and posted an outstanding plus 29 goal differential.  Dutch striker Robin van Persie has been in sublime form for his club team, Arsenal, notching 14 goals in 14 games.  Yet less than a month ago, Germany thrashed Netherlands 3-0 in a preview of the group and tournament favorites. Germany went a perfect 30 for 30 in qualifying points in a group that included a talented young Belgium squad and respectable Turkish team (28th in FIFA rankings).  Now well versed in Joachim Loew's counter attacking system combined with the emergence of the next generation of great German footballers (Mario Goetze, Marco Reus, Andre Schurrle), this group is Germany's to lose.   However, the best player in the group is Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo; the FIFA Player of the Year nominee has already plundered 17 goals in 14 league games for Real Madrid this year.  Portugal possesses a shot at advancing past the group stage if only for the tremendous individual talent on its roster from Ronaldo to Nani to Danny.  Portugal advanced through defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina in a qualifying playoff 6-2 (on aggregate) after placing second in its qualifying group to – who else – Denmark.  It's doubtful the Danes make it through this group, but if they do, it will be because their young starlet Christian Eriksen orchestrates a marvelous attack.
Group C: Spain (1), Croatia (8), Italy (9), Ireland (21)
Midfielder Luka Modric will be a vital
source of Croatia's attack
Group C consists of three top ten teams in FIFA World Rankings, yet it is not even the toughest group of Euros - that is precisely what makes the European Championships so special - the sheer depth of talent.  The defending World and European champions, Spain, qualified without dropping a single point, and must be considered the prohibitive tournament favorite.  Things aren't going as swimmingly as they usually do for the world champs though, La Furia Roja lost 1-0 in a friendly to England at Wembley last month, a slight cause for concern, but anticipate Spain's usual cast of characters (midfielders Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta, forward David Villa) to dominate opposition.  Spain holds an embarrassment of riches; second string players like Manchester City's David Silva, Malaga's Santi Cazorla, and Valencia's Roberto Soldado would star for almost any other nation.  Croatia faltered in qualifying to Greece, but defeated Turkey 3-0 (on aggregate) in qualifying playoffs to punch its ticket.  Croatia has a fantastic number 10 in Luka Modric, who made Euro 2008's Team of the Tournament, to feed its forwards, Ivica Olic and Eduardo.  A changing of the guard is taking place for Italy, 2006 World Cup winners and national team stalwarts Fabio Cannavaro, Francesco Totti, and Luca Toni are no longer on the roster.  Striker Antonio Cassano led the Azzurri in scoring during qualifying with 6 goals, but suffered a stroke nearly a month ago.  It appears Cassano will be able to return to the pitch within 6 months, but if he is unable to recover then Italy will lean heavily on American born Villarreal striker Giuseppe Rossi to find the back of the net.  The Irish are the underdogs of the group, captained by the talismanic striker Robbie Keane, who tallied 7 goals during qualifying (tie for 3rd most).  Ireland finished second in its qualifying group to Russia, but prevailed against Estonia 5-1 (on aggregate) to advance to their first major tournament since 2002.
Group D: Ukraine (Co-Hosts) (55), England (5), France (15), Sweden (18)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, a striker with immense skill, must
overcome his unsteady temperament to help Sweden out of
group stage
England rejoiced last Friday with a very pleasing draw; getting the co-hosts in Ukraine, a France team that imploded in South Africa, and a Swedish side with a vulnerable back four.  England will still struggle without its world class striker Wayne Rooney, who received a three match ban for a dangerous tackle against Montenegro.  Devoid of its greatest goal scoring threat, England will be hard pressed to find a number 9. However, several players are in fine form for England right now including Arsenal's Theo Walcott, Tottenham's Scott Parker, and Manchester City's James Milner; but turmoil could derail the squad due to the antics of its unstable captain, John Terry.  Speaking of unstable, France will most certainly perform better than it showed in the 2010 World Cup under Raymond Domenech.  Hiring Laurent Blanc gave Les Bleus credibility once again; Blanc will utilize perhaps the deepest pool of talent, outside of Spain, in Europe.  Bayern Munich winger Franck Ribery, Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema, and Marseille striker Loic Remy have all played terrific soccer of late; expect the trio to play a large factor in France's results.  Not known for defensive prowess, France may have found new strength at the back under Blanc, especially a budding star in Valencia center back Adi Rami, conceding only four goals through 10 qualifying matches.  The Swedes show flashes of potential, overpowering the Netherlands 3-2 in an October qualifying match, but lose games it should put away like a 2-1 loss against Hungary in September.  If Milan striker and Sweden captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has 8 goals in 10 games for Milan, remains in superb form, Sweden has more than chance to advance to the quarterfinals.   Ukraine is one of the tournament's weakest teams, but a proper send off necessary for one of the best stars of the past decade and the best player in Ukraine history, Andriy Shevchenko.  One can only hope that Shevchenko, Ukraine's captain, pulls off the kind of magic for the home side that the world was so used to seeing in his Milan glory days. 
Joe Wiens is a contributor to The World of Wadley site. He is currently a sophomore studying Finance at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina.

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