Normally, winning 100 games with several key players injured throughout the season in the MLB's toughest division bodes well for the future. The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates last season to win the National League Central despite patching together a roster that suffered injuries to Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Matt Adams. With hardly any roster turnover, and the above players all healthy, there's hardly a reason to doubt that St. Louis can replicate last season's success.Except for one thing: the Chicago Cubs.
The Lovable Losers were neither lovable nor losers to Cardinals fans last season as Theo Epstein's master plan started paying dividends. Chicago's young studs Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber all enjoyed successful seasons and the Cubs received a career year from Jake Arrieta. After dispatching the Cards in five games in the NLDS, the Cubs were defeated by the Mets in the Championship Series.
The successful campaign was apparently a year ahead of Epstein's schedule and that has the baseball world gushing over Chicago. Several media outlets have picked the Cubs to end the 108-year drought and win the World Series, while manager Joe Maddon has his team wearing shirts that say "Embrace the Target." Life is good on the Northside of Chicago and there's reason to be excited.
For the Cardinals, life is changing. The Central Division has been owned by St. Louis since the new millennium as the Cardinals have won nine division titles. In addition, the Cardinals have also been a wild card team three separate times in that span, while adding two championships to their collection. Rarely has St. Louis not been the favorite in the division and it's been a while since they looked up to the Cubs. Sure, Chicago tasted playoff success in 2003 and won the division in 2008, but it wasn't like last year. Last year was different. Last year, legitimate belief trumped Cubbie skepticism and a confidence rarely seen overshadowed fear of curses.
In the offseason, Chicago signed former Cardinals Jason Heyward and John Lackey, along with Ben Zobrist. The Cubs got better. The Cardinals stayed the same. In the St. Louis clubhouse, the belief is that the organization did get better in the offseason by getting healthy. A pitching staff that was a bit thin will get its ace back in Wainwright and a lineup that was starved for runs at certain points will get Holliday and Adams back.
But is it enough? Everybody is healthy for the Cardinals, but will it stay that way? The reality is that Holliday is 36, Wainwright is 34 and Molina is 33. On the other side of the coin, Randal Grichuk hasn't played a full season without injury and Stephen Piscotty is unproven, although he did tear up the 2015 postseason.
Think about this: the Cardinals won 100 games while ranking 24th in the league in runs scored and 25th in home runs. The low offensive output put extreme pressure on the pitching staff, which responded with a league-best 2.49 ERA. Just how good is that figure? The Pirates' staff was second in the league with a 3.21 ERA.
It would be foolish to count on the same domination from the pitching staff and if St. Louis is to keep its strangle-hold of the Central than the lineup must produce.
As for the Cubs, Maddon is right - the target is squarely on their back. Fans are aching for the agony to end. But before blue and red confetti can rain down on Michigan Avenue, the Cubs have to win and that may be tougher than it looks. The roster is stacked with talent, but the Cubs made it through last year with hardly any injuries. Luck was on their side. They will need a little luck again this season in the ultra-competitive Central Division.
St. Louis is the king of the Central; the past 15 years tell us so. The Cubs are no longer the lovable losers; last season showed us that. And St. Louis knows they must be firing on cylinders if they are going to win their fourth-straight division title.
Because the Cubs are coming and they are embracing the target.
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