5 Things to Watch Before March Madness

The Madness came long before the calendar even thought about turning to March this year. College basketball has been a roller coaster ride this season with the unexpected happening more often than the expected. Top teams have fallen weekly and the polls are littered with so-called "mid-majors." There is still plenty of time before the actual March Madness starts, but here are five things to keep an eye on as the regular season winds down.

1. Which Big Ten team will be hot at the end of the season?

The Big Ten is hands down the best conference in the nation and it's not really close. They have four teams that could qualify for the Final Four and three more that have the potential to make the Sweet 16. As of now, Indiana and Michigan State are tied atop the standings at 10-2, but Wisconsin (8-3), Michigan (8-4) and Ohio State (7-4) are all in striking distance. The reality is that any team could win the regular season or the conference tournament. They are that even this year. Consider that two weeks ago Michigan was the #1 team in the nation, but Tuesday night they were absolutely dismantled by Michigan State. Indiana has looked great most of the year, but they are vulnerable and it showed in their loss to Illinois. Speaking of the Illini, they are the biggest mystery in college basketball. They have arguably the best set of wins in the country, but they have terrible losses as well. With a conference that is so tough the team that is hot at the end of the year will be the one that wins the tournament and advances to the Final Four.

2. Miami is the real deal...so far
The Hurricanes have reached number three in the polls and are a perfect 11-0 in the ACC. They have defeated Michigan State, Duke and they swept the season series against North Carolina. Looking at the rest of their schedule, there is only one test remaining. That test, however, is a major one. On March 2 the Canes will travel into Cameron Indoor and try to knock off the Dukies for the second time this season. The strange thing about Miami is that they do not rank higher than fifth in any major statistical category among ACC teams besides steals (3rd) and blocks (2nd). However, they have a steady point guard in Shane Larkin and a coach who knows how to win in Jim Larranaga. Up to this point the Canes have given us no reason to not believe in them.

3. Don't sleep on the Florida Gators
With all the talk surrounding the Big Ten, the usual hype about Duke and the lovable mid-majors such as Butler and Gonzaga steamrolling the competition, it is easy to forget about the Florida Gators. The SEC is down this year with Kentucky not living up to expectations and Missouri playing inconsistent basketball, but Florida has been great all year long and may wind up in Atlanta. In their four wins against ranked opponents the Gators have won by an average of 20 points per game. They reeled off ten straight wins from December 29-February 2 and are undefeated at home. Need a reason for the success? Take note of the 49 percent team field goal percentage which is good for seventh in the nation. They have four players that average double figures and shoot the ball well from long range. One other note to consider while picking your bracket this year: only five coaches have taken one program to the Elite 8 five times since 2000. Billy Donovan is one of them.

4. Will Ryan Kelly be healthy for Duke's tournament run?
Let's be honest. The Duke Blue Devils are a good team with or without Ryan Kelly, but obviously Coach K would benefit from having him back in the lineup. Duke was 15-0 before Kelly injured his foot and since then they have compiled a 7-2 record. Kelly is a versatile forward with the ability to go inside or out. He is averaging a career-high for points with 13.4 and is shooting a staggering 52 percent from three point land. He also averages five boards and shoots nearly 80 percent from the free throw line. Duke is a good team without Kelly, but they are a great team with him. He is expected to return soon, and if he can get healthy before the tournament then the Blue Devils should play deep into March.

5. Is Arizona as good as their #9 ranking indicates?
The Wildcats are 20-3 this season and have an impressive non-conference resume. They defeated Florida, Miami and San Diego State before entering Pac-12 play, but that's where things have gotten a bit murky. The Pac-12 is not a strong conference this season, but 'Zona has gone 8-3 in league play. Sean Miller's crew started the New Year off on the wrong foot by narrowly beating mediocre Colorado in a controversial finish, nearly losing to lowly Utah and then losing their first game of the season to Oregon. There's no doubt that Arizona is a good team and their 20-3 record clearly illustrates that, but they have not always been impressive. They have fared well against non-conference foes, but will they be able to make a run in March against stiff competition?

There is plenty else to watch as this wild season progresses, but these are five story lines worth mentioning. In a season where there is so much uncertainty it is difficult to predict a winner, but the hot team usually wins. In 2011 Connecticut looked awful during the regular season, but got hot at the right time and wound up winning it all. There could be a team with a similar run this season. The Madness is already upon us, but when March hits we can expect things to get even crazier. Buckle up.